Florida State vs SMU Prediction Football Picks Today 9/7/26

The SMU Mustangs and Florida State Seminoles meet Monday in college football action at Doak Campbell Stadium. Here’s a Florida State vs SMU Prediction. This article will include a Florida State vs SMU Pick.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

SMU won nine games last season and enters year five under coach Rhett Lashlee. SMU has made a bowl appearance in each of its last four seasons.

Kevin Jennings is back at QB after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns, and he has great weapons around him. The offensive line is proven, and the Mustangs landed Cal running back Kendrick Raphael and East Carolina wide receiver Yannick Smith. This is a pass-happy offense under Rob Likens, and it makes SMU a contender in the ACC. The defense has more question marks given all of the moving parts. Some of the transfers include Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder from Kansas State, Christian Davis from LA Tech, and Jayvon Thomas from Texas A&M. There’s proven production on this SMU roster, and with a star quarterback, expectations are high, and an ACC title push should be the goal.

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles beat New Mexico State in their season opener, and they play Alabama and Central Arkansas next. Florida State hasn’t won two straight games since September of last year. Ashton Daniels is completing 63 percent of his passes for 202 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Samuel Singleton Jr. and Micahi Danzy have combined for 105 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Duce Robinson has 3 receptions.

The Florida State Seminoles ground game is averaging 217 yards per contest, and Ousmane Kromah leads the way with 115 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Florida State is allowing 17 points and 319 yards per game. Ashlynd Barker leads the Florida State Seminoles with 8 tackles, Mikai Gbayor has 1 sack, and Quindarrius Jones has 1 interception.

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• The home team has won each of Florida State’s last seven games.
• SMU has lost four of its last five games as an AP-ranked team.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an AP-ranked team.
• The home team has covered the spread in six of Florida State’s last seven games.
• The home team has won the first half in each of Florida State’s last eight games.
• The home team has won the first quarter in four of Florida State’s last five games.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last seven season openers.
• Florida State has lost six of its last seven September games against AP-ranked teams.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog.
• SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 14 September games as a favorite.
• SMU has won the first quarter in each of its last six games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last six season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of Florida State’s last nine games against conference opponents at Doak Campbell Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts

• Gemari Sands had the most rushing attempts without a rushing touchdown last season (105).

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Kevin Jennings ranked T8th amongst FBS players for passing yards (3641) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida State recorded the largest margin of victory of any FBS team last season (74 points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
• Florida State recorded the largest margin of victory in a home game last season (74 points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
• SMU ranked 135th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (283.2).
• SMU ranked 5th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against last season (70.2).

Florida State vs SMU Prediction

SMU should be favored given the talent on this roster. I also wasn’t impressed with FSU against New Mexico State. However, I do value teams that had a chance to get a game out of the way. It knocks off rust and gets the jitters out of the way. Also, this is a massive game, and Mike Norvell needs a win like this to cool that seat down. Doak Campbell Stadium is still a tough place to play, and Florida State has elite athletes across the board.

If the Seminoles show up with some pride and play to their potential, they could snag a statement win. I’ll take a shot with FSU and the points while snagging the ML as well. This kind of feels like a must-win for Florida State and its staff.