Florida vs Florida State Prediction Football Picks Today 11/29/25

The Florida State Seminoles and the Florida Gators meet Saturday in college football action from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here’s a Florida vs Florida State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs Florida State pick.

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

The Seminoles opened up the season with a nice run, taking out Alabama, East Texas A&M and Kent State in their first three games. Florida State saw reality set in after that however, and lost to Virginia, Miami, Pitt and Stanford over the next four. Since then it’s been a 2-2 run for the Seminoles. The wins have come over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech; otherwise it’s been losses to Clemson and NC State for a 5-6 overall record through 11 games thus far.

In the NC State matchup last Friday, the Seminoles were trailing 7-3 going into the second half. After a 14-8 deficit from there Florida State was left with a 21-11 loss in the end. QB Thomas Castellanos finished 16-of-32 for 203 yards, one TD and two picks. Castellanos was also the team’s leading rusher in the loss with 76 yards on 11 carries, while top receiver Duce Robinson had four catches for 74 yards and a TD.

Florida Gators Betting Preview

Over on the Florida side, they kicked off their season with a win over Long Island University then fell to South Florida, LSU and Miami in the next three. Wins over Texas and Mississippi State came in the next trio, around a loss to Texas A&M. Over their ensuing trio of games however, Florida would record three straight losses to Georgia, Kentucky and Ole Miss for a 3-7 run through the first 10 outings of the year.

Matched up against Tennessee last weekend, Florida was drilled in the first half and trailed 31-0 by the break. The Gators posted 11 unanswered points from there but it wasn’t anywhere near enough in a 31-11 loss. DJ Lagway threw for 116 yards and a TD on an 11-of-17 line and Jadan Baugh had 18 carries for 96 yards in the loss. Baugh was also the team’s lead receiver with two catches for 35 yards and the lone touchdown.

Florida State Seminoles @ Florida Gators Betting Trends: Week 14

Florida Gators Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Jadan Baugh ranks T22nd amongst FBS players for rushing attempts (182) this season.

Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts

• Mandrell Desir has recorded at least one sack in four consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 14.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida ranks 133rd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (6.8).
• Florida ranks T132nd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (3.2).
• Florida State has recorded the largest margin of victory of any FBS team this season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
• Florida State has recorded the largest margin of victory in a home game this season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).

Florida vs Florida State Prediction

I’ll take a stab on Florida State. I’m probably not touching this one, however; beyond this being a potentially competitive game, there’s not a lot to get excited about with either team. That said, the Seminoles did well on defense versus NC State in their latest loss. FSU gave up 286 yards and 4.2 yards per play alongside 20 first downs and 7-of-16 on third down tries. There were no takeaways, however. On offense Florida State went just 5-of-12 on third downs and coughed up four turnovers in the 10-point defeat. It was the third time in five games that the Seminoles have finished below 15 points.

As for Florida, they couldn’t find much room on offense against a good Tennessee team last weekend. The Gators managed a tepid 261 yards, 116 pass yards, 15 first downs and 2-of-9 on third-down tries. Meanwhile the defense gave up 452 yards, 248 rush yards, 6.2 yards per play, 28 first downs and 9-of-13 on third downs. Florida has been below 25 points in six straight games now, with fewer than 12 in two of the last three.