Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/10/26

The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs meet Saturday in week 6 college football action at Valley Children’s Stadium. Here’s a Fresno State vs. Boise State Prediction. This article will include a Fresno State vs. Boise State Pick.

Boise State Broncos Betting Preview

The Boise State Broncos beat Western Michigan and Utah State, and they play Washington State next. The Boise State Broncos have won 4 straight games. Maddux Madsen is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,058 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rasean Jones and Matt Wagner have combined for 555 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Akeem Wright has 9 receptions.

The Boise State Broncos’ ground game averages 226.6 yards per contest, and Dylan Riley leads with 685 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Boise State is allowing 20.6 points and 372.6 yards per game. Boen Phelps leads the Boise State Broncos with 29 tackles, Jayden Virgin-Morgan has 2 sacks, and Travis Anderson has 3 interceptions.

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs beat Rice and Washington State, and they play San Diego State next. The Fresno State Bulldogs have won 13 of their last 17 games. Jayden Mandal is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 1,034 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Ezekiel Avit and Josiah Freeman have combined for 556 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Jahlil McClain has 12 receptions.

The Fresno State Bulldogs’ ground game is averaging 153.8 yards per contest, and Rayshon Lake leads the way with 286 yards and 1 touchdown. On defense, Fresno State allows 16.4 points and 358.8 yards per game. K’vion Thunderbird leads the Fresno State Bulldogs with 39 tackles, Dylan Hampsten has 3 sacks, and Simeon Harris has 3 interceptions.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won three of its last four games as an underdog against Boise State.
• Boise State has lost four of its last five games in California.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against Boise State.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has won the first half in eight of its last nine home games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has won the first quarter in each of Fresno State’s last three games.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won each of its last eight October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Fresno State has lost each of its last three games against AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in six of Fresno State’s last seven games.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games in October.
• Boise State has won the first half in each of its last 13 October games as an AP-ranked team.
• Boise State has won the first quarter in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Fresno State’s last eight home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Boise State’s last eight road games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Simeon Harris ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Dylan Riley ranks 1st amongst FBS players for rushing yards (685) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State ranks T136th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (0.6).
• Fresno State ranks T6th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (7).
• Boise State ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (36:14).
• Boise State has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last 10 games – longest active streak in the FBS.

Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction

Boise State is the more talented team with the name, so it’s not a surprise the line is what it is. However, Fresno State is a good football team that’s playing well right now but also turned some heads at times last season. It’s not always pretty with Fresno State, as the explosiveness isn’t there offensively and the defense has a bend-but-don’t-break style. Still, Fresno State gets the job done more times than not. This is one of the bigger games in Fresno in a while, so I expect a packed house. Fresno State is live in this spot. Give me the free touchdown.