Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction Football Picks Today 10/4/25

The Nevada Wolf Pack and Fresno State Bulldogs meet Saturday in college football action at Valley Children’s Stadium. Here’s a Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction. This article will include a Fresno State vs Nevada Pick.

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview

The Nevada Wolf Pack lost to Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, and they play San Diego State next. Nevada has lost 9 of its last 10 games. Chubba Purdy is completing 54.8 percent of his passes for 494 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions. Marcus Bellon and Jordan Brown have combined for 345 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Jett Carpenter has 12 receptions.

The Nevada Wolf Pack ground game is averaging 189.3 yards per contest, and Chubba Purdy leads the way with 276 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Nevada is allowing 27 points and 380.8 yards per game. Dylan Labarbera leads the Nevada Wolf Pack with 30 tackles, Nelson Ropati has 2 sacks and EJ Smith has 2 interceptions.

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs beat Southern and Hawaii, and they play Colorado State next. The Fresno State Bulldogs have won 4 straight games. E.J. Warner is completing 73.2 percent of his passes for 946 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Josiah Freeman and Ezekiel Avit have combined for 327 receiving yards on 32 catches, while Kamron Beachem has 4 receptions.

The Fresno State Bulldogs ground game is averaging 174.8 yards per contest, and Bryson Donelson leads the way with 343 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Fresno State is allowing 20 points and 320.6 yards per game. Jadon Pearson leads the Fresno State Bulldogs with 41 tackles, Finn Claypool has 2.5 sacks and Jakari Embry has 1 interception.

Nevada Wolf Pack @ Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Nevada has lost each of its last 11 games against conference opponents.
• Fresno State has won each of its last eight games as a favorite against teams from Nevada.
• Nevada has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in each of its last four games in California.
• Fresno State has won the first half in eight of its last nine home games against conference opponents.

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win

• Nevada has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games in California.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games against teams from Nevada.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Nevada’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Fresno State’s last four games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Rayshon Luke ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Nevada Wolf Pack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Thomas Witte leads the Mountain West Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State has the worst single-game yard differential in a win this season (318-528 vs Oregon State in Week 2).
• Fresno State ranks T8th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.4).
• Nevada is one of two FBS teams to score 20 points or less in every game this season.
• Nevada ranks T134th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (61.5).

Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction

Nevada has looked awful through 4 games and is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. However, Nevada has had an extra week to get its stuff together and has covered 8 of its last 12 games as a double-digit underdog. Fresno State has a balanced attack, but it’s also played games close to the vest this season and has failed to over 6 of its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. Nevada can run the ball at a decent clip and has been able to stop the run at times. That’s a recipe to hang around on the road. I’ll take a shot with the points with the road team.