Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/17/26

In this article, we will formulate a Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction for this College Football Week 7 matchup on Saturday, October 17^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

San Diego State Aztecs Preview

San Diego State has a 2-4 record and a 1-1 record in the Pac-12. They are coming off a 14-66 road loss against Oregon State and will face Colorado State and Washington State next.

Offensively, San Diego State averages 22.8 points per game, ranking 106th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 35 points per game, which is 131st. San Diego State averages 277.7 total yards per game (143.7 passing and 134 rushing), while allowing 477.8 total yards per game (178.7 rushing and 299.2 passing).

Jayden Denegal leads San Diego State with 787 passing yards with 53.9% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. Javion Kinnard leads the team in rushing yards with 355, while Nathan Acevedo has a team-high 177 receiving yards and 16 receptions. Defensively, Sione Hala has a team-high 61 total tackles (29 of them solo), while Djibril Abdou Rahman leads the team with 3 sacks.

Fresno State Bulldogs Preview

Fresno State has a 4-2 record and a 1-1 record in the Pac-12. They are coming off a 31-38 home loss against Boise State and will face Oregon State and Utah State next.

Offensively, Fresno State averages 28.3 points per game, ranking 74th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 20 points per game, which is 42nd. Fresno State averages 363.7 total yards per game (224 passing and 139.7 rushing), while allowing 384.3 total yards per game (165.2 rushing and 219.2 passing).

Jayden Mandal leads Fresno State with 1,252 passing yards with 64.7% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Rayshon Luke leads the team in rushing yards with 286, while Josiah Freeman has a team-high 396 receiving yards and 29 receptions. Defensively, K’Vion Thunderbird has a team-high 52 total tackles (22 of them solo), while Dylan Hampsten leads the team with 3 sacks.

Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends: Week 7

Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win

• San Diego State has won eight of its last nine games at Snapdragon Stadium.
• Fresno State has lost three of its last four games in October.
• San Diego State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in October.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a favorite.
• San Diego State has won the first half in five of its last six games against Fresno State.
• The underdog has won the first quarter in three of Fresno State’s last four games.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Diego State has lost four of its last five games.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The road team has won the first quarter in each of the last four games between Fresno State and San Diego State.
• Fresno State has won the first half in seven of its last eight games as a favorite in California.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of San Diego State’s last eight games against teams from California have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Fresno State’s last eight October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Jaylon Hawkins ranks 1st amongst FBS players for kick return yards (543) this season.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Manaki Watanabe ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for made field goals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• San Diego State ranks 138th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (148).
• San Diego State has the worst single-game yard differential in a win this season (239-565 vs Texas State in Week 5).
• Fresno State has won the fourth quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
• Fresno State ranks 7th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.3).

Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction

In this Fresno State vs San Diego State prediction, Fresno State is coming as -7.5 road favorites. Fresno State is 4-1 in its last 5 games and has covered the spread in its last five. They are better than San Diego State both offensively and defensively, with a +8.3 point differential. On the flip side, San Diego State is 1-4 in its last 5 games and 1-5 ATS this season, while having the 8^th-worst defense in the entire country. Take Fresno State and lay the points on the road in this one.