The New Mexico State Aggies and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors meet late Saturday evening in college football action from Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex. The Aggies just finished up a game versus New Mexico. In that one New Mexico State took a 10-point victory. As for Hawaii, they’re coming off a matchup against Oregon. The Warriors would go on to lose in blowout fashion. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.

New Mexico State Aggies 

This will be the Aggies’ fifth game of the year. New Mexico State got an early start in a 41-30 loss to UMass on August 26, then pulled back to .500 with a 58-21 blowout win over Western Illinois in game two. The next week versus Liberty however, New Mexico State fell again 33-17. The Aggies gave up 526 yards (250 rushing) in the defeat. 

In the New Mexico game, New Mexico State posted 17 points in the second quarter and held the Lobos at bay the rest of the game with a 27-17 victory. QB Diego Pavia had 203 yards with two scores, and also led the rush with 96 yards off 11 carries. Jonathan Brady caught three balls for 109 yards and two scores as well. 

New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts

New Mexico State has lost eight of its last nine road games in September.
New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last seven road games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
New Mexico State has won the first half in four of its last five games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
Five of New Mexico State’s last six September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 

Over on the Warriors’ side, they also got started early with a tough 35-28 loss to Vanderbilt in their first game on August 26. Hawaii fell again 37-24 to Stanford in game two, but then managed a victory over Albany 31-20 on September 9. Hawaii held the Great Danes to just 239 yards of offense (115 passing) but also notched a sloppy game with 11 penalties and three picks. 

Matched up against Oregon over the weekend, Hawaii gave up 34 points in the first half on the way to a 55-10 defeat. QB Brayden Schager posted 131 yards with a TD and an INT, and Pofele Ashlock led the receivers on eight grabs for 47 yards. Jordan Johnson was tops in rushing on 39 yards from four carries. 

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Team Facts

Hawaii has won each of its last 15 September games as a favorite.
Hawaii has covered the spread in six of its last seven games at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Hawaii has won the first quarter in three of its last four home games against non-conference opponents.
Hawaii has lost the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Five of Hawaii’s last six September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Hawaii ranked T25th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.538).
Hawaii suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (3).
New Mexico State ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).
New Mexico State ranked T21st among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (3.9).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK 

I’ll probably stick with New Mexico State, but this should be an interesting matchup overall. The Aggies were pretty uneven on the scoreboard over their first three games, giving up 21 or more points in each. Defense is going to be important in this one if New Mexico State is going to control the tempo on the road. In game four versus New Mexico, the Aggies posted 397 total yards (220 passing) with zero turnovers. New Mexico State also had just 15 first downs and went a pretty rough 2-of-7 on third-down conversions. Still, that makes 27 or more points in three of four games this year and I like the Aggies offense to keep it up against Hawaii.