USC Trojans (4-0) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1)
September 27, 2025 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5; Over/Under:
(Get latest betting odds)
The USC Trojans and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Saturday in college football action from Memorial Stadium Champaign. Here’s an Illinois vs USC prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs USC pick.
USC Trojans Betting Preview
USC has completed four games so far this year, with three of those being at home. The opener was a pretty easy matchup versus Missouri State, as the Trojans cruised to a blowout win there 73-13. Game two against Georgia Southern was much the same; USC walked away from that one with a 59-20 victory. In game three versus Purdue the score was a lot tighter but the result was still the same. USC managed 14 points in the second quarter and 13 in the third during a 33-17 victory. The Trojans offense accounted for 460 total yards along the way with 282 of those coming through the air. The nine USC penalties didn’t help matters, though.
In their matchup with Michigan State last weekend, the Trojans scored double-digit points in three of four quarters (but did give up points in every quarter themselves) during a 45-31 win. QB Jayden Maiava threw for three scores and 234 yards on 20-of-26 passing while also posting two rush touchdowns. Waymond Jordan led the rushers with 18 totes for 157 yards, and Makai Lemon had eight catches for 127 yards and one of the touchdowns.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Over on the Illini side, they waltzed through their first three games without too much difficulty. Illinois started things out versus Western Illinois, coming away with a 52-3 win in the opener. Game two versus Duke had a bit of a slow start but Illinois ended up winning that one 45-19. On September 13 versus Western Michigan, the Illini scored 28 points in the second half on the way to a 38-0 blowout shutout win. Illinois’ defense was on point in that one, holding the Broncos to just 204 total yards (91 passing) and 12 first downs. The Illini accounted for 358 total yards (196 passing) on offense themselves.
Matched up against rival Indiana last weekend, the Illini were in trouble from the very beginning. Illinois gave up 14 points in three of four quarters (and 21 in the other quarter) and got shut out completely in the second half on the way to a rough 63-10 blowout loss. QB Luke Altmyer finished 14-of-22 for 146 yards and a score, and Kaden Feagin led the rushers with five carries for 18 yards. Collin Dixon was the leading receiver with four catches for 86 yards and the lone touchdown in the defeat.
USC Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends: Week 5
Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Gabe Jacas leads the Big Ten Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
USC Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Bishop Fitzgerald ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
- Illinois ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (11.3).
- USC has won the second quarter in each of its last seven games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
- USC ranks T2nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (50.0).
Illinois vs USC Prediction
I’ll stay with USC. With the ugly Illinois loss last weekend, some of the luster has worn off this matchup. That said, it should still be a good game to check out. The Trojans looked pretty solid against Michigan State last weekend (aside from the nine penalties for 78 yards), generating 523 yards (289 rushing), 7.9 yards per play, 27 first downs and 8-of-12 on third-down tries. That gives USC 33 or more points in all four games so far this year, though it’s worth noting that the 31 points were their highest total surrendered this season.
As for Illinois, they’re reeling after a demoralizing loss to their next-door neighbor last weekend. The Illini couldn’t get anything to go right, posting just 161 yards of offense (159 rushing), 3.6 yards per play, nine first downs and a 1-of-10 success rate on third-down conversions. Illinois’ defense gave up 579 yards (312 rushing) on the other side along with 8.0 yards per play, 31 first downs and 8-of-11 on third downs. The Illini are too good of a team not to bounce back and look better this weekend, but I don’t trust them to cover/win right now.
