Indiana vs Michigan State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/18/25

In this article we will formulate an Indiana vs Michigan State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 18th at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 8 matchup. 

Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview

The Indiana Hoosiers are 6-0 (3-0) this year after they defeated Oregon by a score of 30-20 last week. Indiana led 13-10 at halftime, but was tied at 20 in the fourth quarter, before scoring the last 10 points for the upset win. The Hoosiers out gained Oregon by a total of 326-267, went 5-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Fernando Mendoza went 20-31 for 215 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Roman Hemby rushed 19 times for 70 yards and two scores. Elijah Sarratt led the receivers with eight catches for 121 yards and one touchdown in the win. The IU defense recorded six sacks and eight tackles for loss in the game. 

Indiana also has wins against Iowa, Illinois, Indiana State, Kennesaw State, and Old Dominion to start the season undefeated. The Hoosiers have won their first six games and they are currently tied for first in the Big Ten standings. Indiana has scored 44.8 points per game with 261.2 passing yards and 241.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.3 points against per game this season. Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Elijah Sarratt has 39 receptions for 533 yards and seven scores this year. 

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans are 3-3 (0-3) this season after they lost to UCLA by a score of 38-13 last week. Michigan State led 7-0 in the first quarter, but they allowed the next 38 points for the blowout loss. The Spartans were out gained by a total of 418-253, went 8-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Aidan Chiles went 8-17 for 66 yards, while Makhi Frazier rushed 12 times for 58 yards. Nick Marsh led the receivers with seven receptions for 77 yards and one score in the loss. The MSU defense recorded two sacks and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Michigan State also has losses against Nebraska and USC, but they did beat Youngstown State, Boston College, and Western Michigan. The Spartans have lost three games in a row and they are currently tied for last in the Big Ten standings. Michigan State has scored 29.5 points per game with 200.5 passing yards and 131.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 31.8 points against per game this season. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,019 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Omari Kelly has 24 receptions for 347 yards and one score this season. 

Why the Indiana Hoosiers will win

• Indiana has won each of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last nine games against AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games against top-5 AP-ranked teams.
• Indiana has covered the spread in each of its last five games in October.
• Indiana has won the first half in each of its last six home games against conference opponents.
• Indiana has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last eight road games against top-10 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Indiana’s last four home games against teams from Michigan have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Indiana has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
• Indiana has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 30+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Michigan State ranks 121st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (31.8).

Indiana vs Michigan State Prediction 

Michigan State limps into this contest after an embarrassing loss to UCLA last week and they have yet to win a conference game. The Spartans have allowed 38+ in three straight games and could be in for another rough one here. Indiana is rolling right now and just beat Oregon by 10 points on the road. I expect the Hoosiers to move the ball easily in this one and they should have no problem winning in blowout fashion. Take Indiana to cover at home. 

David Racey is 70-48 (59%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!