Indiana Hoosiers (4-0) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1)
September 27, 2025 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Iowa Hawkeyes +7.5; Over/Under: 48.5
(Get latest betting odds)
Iowa and Indiana meet Saturday in Week 5 college football action from Kinnick Stadium. Here’s a Iowa vs Indiana prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Iowa Hawkeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers pick.
Indiana Made Quite a Statement
Indiana made quite the statement, and they come into this game with a 4-0 record overall. In the last game, the Hoosiers faced off against the Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that is quality, and they still ended up beating them 63-10. The Hoosiers finished the game with 579 total yards, and 312 of those came on the ground. Fernando Mendoza had a huge game and completed 21 of his 23 passes for 267 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Khobie Martin finished with 12 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns.
Overall the Hoosiers are averaging 54.75 points while their defense is giving up 8.25 points per game. The offense is ranked 3rd in all of college football, while the defense is ranked 5th. Mendoza has thrown for 975 yards, 14 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Why Indiana Will Beat Iowa
- Indiana has won each of its last 22 September games as a favorite.
- Iowa has lost each of its last nine games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
- Iowa has failed to cover the spread in each of its last nine games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
- Indiana has covered the spread in each of its last seven September games as a favorite.
What a Win for Iowa
Iowa’s offense has not been great the last how many years, and through the first few games, it looked like that could be an issue again, but maybe the last game was all they needed, and the offense maybe could be good. Iowa faced off against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, and the offense put up 38 points on the way to the ten-point victory. Quarterback Mark Gronowski completed 12 of his 18 passes for 186 yards. He also rushed 13 times for 55 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa really needs him to find success with his legs in this game.
Iowa on the season is averaging 33 points while their defense is giving up 14.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 54th in the league while the defense is ranked 24th. Iowa has used a balanced offensive attack on the ground with three different players putting up over 100 yards.
Why Iowa Will Beat Indiana
- Iowa has won each of its last seven home games.
- Indiana has lost 14 of its last 18 road games against conference opponents.
- The home team has covered the spread in six of Indiana’s last seven games.
- Indiana has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games in September.
Iowa vs Indiana Prediction
For many teams, this would like a letdown spot for Indiana, but I just don’t see that happening. Even though Iowa won the last game, their defense is a big issue and they are going to have an even bigger issue. Meondoza has been elite this season, and he’s going to surgically pick apart this defense. Indiana is averaging 54.75 points, and although they won’t reach that number here, they will score at least 40. Iowa’s offense just won’t score enough, and Indiana is going to cruise here. This feels like a game that will finish 41-14 or 41-21. Either way it will be enough for Indiana to cover. Back Indiana to cover the spread.
