Troy Trojans (8-4) vs. James Madison Dukes (11-1)
December 5, 2025 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: James Madison Dukes -23 / Troy Trojans 23; Over/Under: 47.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Troy Trojans and James Madison Dukes meet Friday in the college football Sun Belt Championship at Bridgeforth Stadium. Here’s a James Madison vs Troy Prediction. This article will include a James Madison vs Troy Pick.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans beat Georgia State and Southern Miss. Troy has won 7 of its last 9 games. Tucker Kilcrease is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,414 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. RaRa Thomas and Tray Taylor have combined for 973 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while DJ Epps has 40 receptions.
The Troy Trojans ground game is averaging 119.1 yards per contest, and Tae Meadows leads the way with 685 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Troy is allowing 26.1 points and 412.1 yards per game. Jordan Stringer leads the Troy Trojans with 104 tackles, Donnie Smith has 9 sacks and Jaquez White has 2 interceptions.
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview
The James Madison Dukes beat Washington State and Coastal Carolina. The James Madison Dukes have won 10 straight games. Alonza Barnett III is completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,440 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Landon Ellis and Nick DeGennaro have combined for 918 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Wayne Knight has 35 receptions.
The James Madison Dukes ground game is averaging 261.5 yards per contest, and Wayne Knight leads the way with 1,051 yards and 8 touchdowns. Defensively, James Madison is allowing 17.5 points and 276.5 yards per game. Trent Hendrick leads the James Madison Dukes with 91 tackles, Aiden Gobaira has 4 sacks and Justin Eaglin has 4 interceptions.
Why the James Madison Dukes will win
- James Madison has won each of its last 10 games.
- Troy has lost nine of its last 10 games against AP-ranked teams.
- James Madison has covered the spread in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
- James Madison has won the first half in seven of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
- James Madison has won the first quarter in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won four of its last five games as an underdog.
- Troy has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games in December.
- The team ranked 19th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of James Madison’s last five games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Troy’s last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
James Madison Dukes Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the Conference Championships, Wayne Knight is one of only 13 players in the FBS to record 1,000 rushing yards with less than 200 attempts this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the Conference Championships, Evan Crenshaw ranks 10th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (46.7) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- James Madison ranks 1st among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+7.9).
- James Madison ranks 2nd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.5).
- Troy ranks 10th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.0).
- Troy ranks 126th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (3.2).
James Madison vs Troy Prediction
James Madison is clearly the better team, as it’s top-10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. James Madison looks like a team that should make the college football playoff. Troy doesn’t have the sexy numbers on either side of the ball, but still has found ways to win and has covered 7 of its last 9 games.
Troy has improved offensively over the last month and the defense is decent at keeping teams out of the end zone despite struggling against the run. James Madison has failed to cover 4 of its last 6 games as a double-digit favorite. This is a lot of points for a championship game. I’ll take a shot with Troy and the points.
