Kansas State vs UCF Prediction Football Picks Today 9/27/25

In this article we will formulate a Kansas State vs UCF prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview

The Kansas State Wildcats are 1-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Arizona by a score of 23-17 in their last game. Kansas State trailed 17-3 at halftime, but they quickly tied the game up in the third, before allowing the last six points for the loss. The Wildcats were out gained by Arizona by a total of 412-193, went 3-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Avery Johnson went 13-29 for 88 yards, while Jayce Brown rushed one time for 75 yards and a touchdown. Jayce Brown also led the receivers with six catches for 68 yards in the game. The K-State defense recorded two sacks and four tackles for loss in the defeat. 

Kansas State also has losses against Iowa State and Army, but did beat North Dakota in their second game. The Wildcats are averaging 24.3 points per game with 212.8 passing yards and 108.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 26.5 points against per game this season. Avery Johnson has completed 60.6% of his passes for 851 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception, while Jayce Brown has caught 25 passes for 284 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Jackson has been the lead back with 30 carries for 136 yards this season. 

UCF Knights Betting Preview

The UCF Knights are 3-0 (0-0) this year after they defeated North Carolina by a score of 34-9 in their last game. UCF led 20-3 at the half and pulled away in the second half for the easy win. The Knights out gained UNC by a total of 366-217, went 5-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 2-0 in the game. Tayven Jackson went 25-32 with 223 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 66 yards and one score on 10 carries. Dylan Wade led the receivers with five receptions for 47 yards in the game. The UCF defense recorded two sacks and four tackles for loss in the victory. 

UCF also has wins over Jacksonville State by a score of 17-10 and NC A&T by a score of 68-7 so far this year. The Knights are averaging 39.7 points per game with 247.0 passing yards and 202.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 8.7 points against per game this season. Tayven Jackson has completed 70.1% of his passes for 694 yards and three touchdowns, while Duane Thomas Jr has caught 12 passes for 148 yards. Jaden Nixon has led the rushing attack with 11 carries for 160 yards and three scores this year. 

Why UCF will beat Kansas State

• Kansas State has lost each of its last three September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UCF has won seven of its last eight road openers.
• Kansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Kansas State’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of UCF’s last eight games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of Kansas State’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Four of Kansas State’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of seven points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Three of Kansas State’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).

Kansas State vs UCF Prediction 

Kansas State limps into this matchup looking for their first FBS win of the season, but they are coming off of a bye week and will be at home. The Wildcats have been a huge disappointment so far this season and their offense has been underperforming. UCF is 3-0 in their first three games and they just blew out North Carolina last week. I don’t think that UNC team is very good, so this will be the first true test for UCF this season. I definitely don’t love UCF’s first result against Jacksonville State, but they have improved each week and this K-State team is in a bad place right now. Take UCF on the road. 

David Racey is 18-9 (67%) in his last 27 College Football plays this season and is #1 on the leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!