Kentucky vs Florida Prediction Football Picks 9-30-23
Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) vs Florida Gators (3-1)
2023-09-30 12:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kentucky Wildcats -3 -- Over/Under: 46
(Get latest betting odds)
The Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at Kroger Field. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
The Florida Gators look for a fourth straight win to stay in the top-25 rankings. Florida has lost 3 straight road games. Graham Mertz is completing 77.8 percent of his passes for 951 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson III have combined for 466 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Caleb Douglas has 10 receptions. The Florida Gators ground game is averaging 164.8 yards per contest, and Trevor Etienne leads the way with 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Florida is allowing 13.5 points and 244.8 yards per game. Shemar James leads the Florida Gators with 27 tackles, Princely Umanmielen has 2 sacks and Devin Moore has 1 interception.
Florida Gators Team Facts
- Florida has won each of its last 13 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Florida has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Florida has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- Seven of Florida’s last eight road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats look for their fourth home win to remain undefeated on the season. Kentucky looks for a 5-0 start for the second time in the last 3 years. Devin Leary is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,060 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown have combined for 497 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Dane Key has 13 receptions. The Kentucky Wildcats ground game is averaging 132 yards per contest, and Ray Davis leads the way with 314 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Kentucky is allowing 15.5 points and 293.3 yards per game. Trevin Wallace leads the Kentucky Wildcats with 25 tackles, Kahlil Saunders has 1.5 sacks and Maxwell Hairston has 3 interceptions.
Kentucky Wildcats Team Facts
- Kentucky has won each of its last 12 games in September.
- Kentucky has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games against AP-ranked teams at Kroger Field.
- Each of Kentucky’s last 10 games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Kentucky ranked 10th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (8.2).
- Kentucky ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).
- Florida ranked T23rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (8.2).
- Florida ranked T25th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.538).
Randy’s Pick
The Kentucky Wildcats are getting the benefit of the doubt because of their start and the fact they’re at home. And yes, Kentucky has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Florida. However, it’s the Gators who have won 33 of the last 36 meetings overall against Kentucky. Florida seems to be making strides offensively and its defense is one of the best in the country right now, as it’s fifth in total defense and 18th in scoring defense. Kentucky hasn’t really played anybody up to this point, and its ground attack is still stuck in the mud a bit. Florida is capable of grinding out an upset win here. Give me the free field goal.