Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction 11-30-24 College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Kentucky vs Louisville prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, November 30th at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 14 matchup. 

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats are 4-7 (1-7) this year after they lost to Texas by a score of 31-14 in their last game. Kentucky tied the game at seven in the second quarter and only trailed 24-14 in the third, but couldn’t get any closer. The Wildcats were out gained by a total of 442-232, tied the turnover battle at two, and went 2-12 on third down in the game. Cutter Boley threw for 160 yards and one interception, while Willie Rodriguez caught three passes for 53 yards in the game. 

Prior to that game, the Wildcats defeated Murray State by a score of 48-6, but did lose the previous four games. The Kentucky offense has scored 21.9 points per game with 185.9 passing yards and 144.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.4 points against per game this season. Cutter Boley has completed 52.6% of his passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Dane Key has caught 47 passes for 715 yards and two scores. 

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

The Louisville Cardinals are 7-4 (5-3) this season after they defeated Pittsburgh by a score of 37-9 in their last game. Louisville scored the first 34 points in the game and cruised to the blowout win. The Cardinals out gained Pittsburgh by a total of 507-265, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 7-12 on third down in the game. Tyler Shough threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while Isaac Brown rushed for 93 yards and two scores on 13 carries. 

Prior to that win, the Cardinals lost to Stanford by a score of 38-35, but did beat Clemson and Boston College before that. The Louisville offense has scored 36.7 points per game with 285.5 passing yards and 167.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 24.1 points against per game this season. Tyler Shough has completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,067 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Isaac Brown has rushed for 896 yards and nine scores this year. 

Why Louisville will beat Kentucky

• Kentucky has lost each of its last 11 November games as a home underdog.
• The favorite has won each of Louisville’s last five games at Kroger Field.
• Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six November games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Louisville’s last five games at Kroger Field.
• Louisville has won the first quarter in seven of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Kentucky’s last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Louisville’s last five games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Kentucky ranks T131st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (75.0).
• Kentucky ranks 5th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (70.5).
• Louisville ranks 11th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (9.9).
• Louisville ranks 11th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+5.5).

Kentucky vs Louisville Prediction 

Kentucky comes into this matchup after a disappointing season, but they have the chance to end on a positive note with a win in this rivalry game. The Wildcats will be on their third string quarterback, so their defense needs to continue to play well. Louisville bounced back from that terrible loss to Stanford with a convincing win against Pittsburgh last time out and I think we are going to see another solid performance here. I don’t trust the Kentucky offense to score consistently and I like Shough at quarterback. Take Louisville here.