Buffalo Bulls (8-4) vs. Liberty Flames (8-3)
January 4, 2025 11:00 am EDT
The Line: Liberty Flames -2.5 / Buffalo Bulls +2.5; Over/Under: +50.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Liberty vs Buffalo prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, January 4th at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for the Bahamas Bowl.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The Liberty Flames are 8-3 (5-3) this year after they lost to Sam Houston by a score of 20-18 in their last game. Liberty trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter, but they did score twice, before getting stopped on the two point conversion for the loss. The Flames were out gained by a total of 333-262, lost the turnover battle 2-1, and went 3-16 on third down in the game. Kaidon Salter threw for 83 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Quinton Cooley rushed for 90 yards on 19 carries in the game.
Liberty has wins over Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, East Carolina, FIU, Middle Tennessee, UMass, and Western Kentucky, while also losing to Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State. The Liberty offense has scored 30.9 points per game with 175.8 passing yards and 259.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23.3 points against per game this season. Liberty will not have their starting quarterback in this game, as Salter is transferring, and they are expected to have quite a few starters miss the game as well.
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bulls are 8-4 (6-2) this season after they defeated Kent State by a score of 43-7 in their last game. Buffalo led 26-0 at halftime and cruised to the victory in the second half. The Bulls out gained Kent State by a total of 446-208, lost the turnover battle 2-1, and went 9-15 on third down in the game. CJ Ogbonna threw for 193 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Al-Jay Henderson rushed for 185 yards and one score in the game.
Buffalo also has wins against Lafayette, UMass, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Akron, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan, while losing to Missouri, UConn, Western Michigan, and Ohio. The Buffalo offense has scored 29.1 points per game with 190.4 passing yards and 164.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 28 points against per game this season. CJ Ogbonna has completed 57.1% of his passes for 2,244 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Al-Jay Henderson has rushed for 959 yards and eight scores this year.
Why Buffalo will beat Liberty
- Buffalo has won each of its last four games.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Buffalo has covered the spread in each of its last three Bowl games.
- Buffalo has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Liberty’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of Buffalo’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks 2nd among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (258.7).
- Liberty ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.6).
- Buffalo ranks 121st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (258.6).
- Buffalo ranks 119th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (33.9).
Liberty vs Buffalo Prediction
Buffalo comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they will have most of their team intact for this game. The Bulls have a very high powered offense, but their defense has struggled for most of the season. Liberty has won three of their last four games, but they will be using a backup quarterback. The Flames were inconsistent this season, even in some of their wins, and I don’t feel good about their chances without Salter. Take Buffalo here.
