Sam Houston State Bearkats (1-3) vs. Liberty Flames (4-1)
October 8, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Liberty Flames -13.5 / Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5; Over/Under: 52.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Sam Houston Bearkats and the Liberty Flames meet in week 6 college football action from Williams Stadium on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Prediction.
Sam Houston Bearkats Recap
The Sam Houston Bearkats come into this game looking to bounce back from their 49-14 loss at the hands of Texas Tech last time out to sit at 1-3 this season. After this game, Sam Houston will head home for a game against Western Kentucky.
Bearkats Looking For First Win Vs. FBS Team
Landyn Locke has thrown for 1,168 yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 66.2% passing while Alton McCaskill leads Sam Houston in rushing with 165 yards and a touchdown through 4 games this season. Landan Brown sits behind McCaskill on the ground with 75 yards and a touchdown. Chris Reed leads the Bearkats in receiving with 220 yards and 11 catches along with 3 touchdowns, while Grady O’Neill trails with 216 yards and 22 catches. On defense, Brody Henderson and Dean Ford tie for a team-high 20 tackles while Sam Houston’s defense as a whole has combined for 9 sacks and 5 interceptions through 4 games this season.
Liberty Flames Recap
The Liberty Flames come into this game looking to add on to their 30-14 win over Delaware last time out to sit at 4-1 this season. After this game, Liberty will head on the road for a game against WKU.
Flames Win 4 Straight
Deshawn Purdie has thrown for 936 yards, 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 60.0% passing while Kam Davis leads Liberty in rushing with 457 yards and 3 touchdowns through 4 games this season. Peyton Jones sits behind Davis on the ground with 239 yards and a touchdown. Makai Jackson leads the Flames in receiving with 469 yards and 19 catches along with 5 touchdowns, while Jamari Person trails with 154 yards and 11 catches. On defense, Aidan Vaughan has a team-high 25 tackles while Liberty’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 5 interceptions through 4 games this season.
Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: Week 6
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Sam Houston State has lost nine of its last 10 road games.
- Liberty has won 14 of its last 16 games in October.
- Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven road games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has covered the spread in five of Liberty’s last six games.
- Liberty has won the first quarter in each of its last four games.
- Liberty has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win
- Liberty has lost four of its last five games against conference opponents.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six October games as a home favorite.
- Sam Houston State has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Five of Sam Houston State’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Liberty’s last five home games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 6, Makai Jackson ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (24.7) this season.
Sam Houston State Bearkats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 6, Landyn Locke has recorded the longest passing touchdown in a single game this season (94 yards vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Week 2).
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks 8th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (33:56).
- Liberty ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.8).
- Sam Houston State ranks 8th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (145.3).
- Sam Houston State ranks 129th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (100.0).
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Prediction
I’m on the Bearkats and the points in this one. Liberty’s got their eyes squarely set on locking up a spot in the C-USA title game as they’re one of the front-runners, but this Sam Houston team’s been competitive in a lot of spots this season already against tougher than what they’re up against here even with Liberty being the top dog in C-USA and I think that Sam Houston can keep it respectable while Liberty’s feeling themselves a little bit here. Give me Sam Houston and the points.
