Louisiana-Monroe vs Appalachian State Prediction Football Picks 9-30-23

Louisiana-Monroe vs Appalachian State Prediction Football Picks 9-30-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Appalachian State Mountaineers and the LA-Monroe Warhawks meet Saturday in college football action from Malone Stadium. Appalachian State is fresh off a matchup versus Wyoming last weekend. In that one the Mountaineers took a difficult three-point defeat. As for LA-Monroe, they’re coming off an open week; the Warhawks last appeared in a blowout loss to Texas A&M on September 16. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.

Appalachian State Mountaineers 

Appalachian State got off to a nice start this year with a 45-24 win over Gardner-Webb in their opener. The Mountaineers were able to stand tall against a great North Carolina team in a 40-34 overtime loss during game two, then App State bounced back with a 43-28 win over East Carolina. Quarterback Joey Aguilar provided 241 yards with three scores in the victory. 

Last weekend versus Wyoming, Appalachian State held a 12-7 lead at halftime. The Mountaineers were outscored 15-7 from there however and lost it 22-19. Aguilar finished with 200 yards and a pick. Nate Noel topped the rushers on 107 yards off 30 totes. 

Appalachian State Mountaineers Team Facts

The home team has won each of Appalachian State's last 12 games.
Appalachian State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
Appalachian State has lost the first half in four of its last five road games against conference opponents.
Each of Appalachian State's last seven September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

LA-Monroe Warhawks 

As for LA-Monroe, they’ve only got three games in the books so far this year due to an early bye week. The Warhawks took a 17-13 victory over Army in their opener. Game two against Lamar was another victory, this time 24-14 thanks mostly to 285 rushing yards and zero turnovers for LA-Monroe. 

The Warhawks had a rough matchup versus Texas A&M in their third game of the year, and things went how you might expect. LA-Monroe gave up double-digit points in every quarter on the way to a 47-3 blowout loss. Jiya Wright posted just 95 passing yards and also led an anemic rush on 34 yards from five carries. Dariyan Wiley added three catches for 52 yards. 

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Team Facts

Louisiana-Monroe has won each of its last six home games in September.
The home team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Monroe.
Louisiana-Monroe has lost the first half in 11 of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
Each of Louisiana-Monroe's last nine September home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Louisiana-Monroe was one of only five FBS teams to win 4+ games when trailing after Q1 last season.
Louisiana-Monroe was one of only six FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing after Q3 last season.
Appalachian State ranked 5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.1).
Appalachian State ranked T10th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.667).


I'm likely going to stick with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are reeling after a tough loss to Wyoming despite outplaying the Cowboys for the vast majority of the game. App State held the opposition to just 208 total yards (31 passing), seven first downs and 3-of-12 on third-down tries but collapsed after a blocked field goal and a late interception. It was an odd loss. 

As for LA-Monroe, the good news is that they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup and they’ll be well-rested after the open week. The bad news is that the Warhawks have been at 17 or fewer points in two of their three games and probably don’t have the offense to keep pace here if App State gets going. 

Andrew Jett's Free Pick:Appalachian State Mountaineers -14