Louisville vs NC State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/3/26

In this article, we will formulate a Louisville vs NC State Prediction for this College Football Week 5 matchup on Saturday, October 3^rd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

NC State Wolfpack Preview

NC State has a 2-2 record and are coming off a 41-31 home win against Appalachian State. They will face Wake Forest and Stanford next. Offensively, NC State averages 38.2 points per game, ranking 31st in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25 points per game, which is 89th. NC State averages 451.8 total yards per game (232.8 passing and 219 rushing), while allowing 327.8 total yards per game (121.5 rushing and 206.3 passing).

CJ Bailey leads NC State with 893 passing yards with 67.3% completed passes and 6 touchdowns. Jayden Scott leads the team in rushing yards with 346, while Keenan Jackson has a team-high 19 receptions for 295 receiving yards. Defensively, Raul Aguirre Jr. has a team-high 37 total tackles (13 of them solo), while Elijah Satchell leads the team with 2 sacks.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

Louisville has a 2-2 record and are coming off a 27-30 home loss against Wake Forest. They will face Florida State and Syracuse next. Offensively, Louisville averages 41.2 points per game, ranking 18th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 28.8 points per game, which is 109th. Louisville averages 486.3 total yards per game (295.8 passing and 190.5 rushing), while allowing 405.5 total yards per game (165.3 rushing and 240.3 passing).

Lincoln Kienholz leads Louisville with 1,140 passing yards with 68.8% completed passes and 7 touchdowns. Keyjuan Brown leads the team in rushing yards with 279, while Tre Richardson has a team-high 20 receptions for 328 receiving yards. Defensively, Stanquan Clark has a team-high 28 total tackles (8 of them solo), while Clev Lubin leads the team with 2.5 sacks.

Louisville Cardinals @ NC State Wolfpack Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the NC State Wolfpack will win

• NC State has won each of its last six games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
• Louisville has lost five of its last seven October games as a road favorite.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 10 October games as a road favorite.
• NC State has covered the spread in five of its last six games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
• NC State has won the first half in each of its last six games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
• NC State has won the first quarter in each of its last seven games at Carter-Finley Stadium.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• The favorite has won each of NC State’s last six games.
• NC State has lost four of its last five games against teams from Kentucky.
• The favorite has covered the spread in five of NC State’s last six games.
• NC State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Louisville has won the first quarter in each of its last six games.
• NC State has lost the first half in eight of its last nine October games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisville’s last four games against teams from North Carolina have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of NC State’s last four games against teams from Kentucky have gone UNDER the total points line.

NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Will Wilson ranks T12th amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (5) this season.

Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Isaac Brown ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• NC State ranks T133rd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.3).
• NC State ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (12.3).
• Two of Louisville’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Louisville has won the third quarter in each of its last six games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.

Louisville vs NC State Prediction

In this Louisville vs NC State Prediction, Louisville is coming as -3.5 road favorites. Both teams have identical records so far this season with NC State having a better defense and Louisville a better offense. I see no value on either side and both teams are 6-1 to the over in their last 7 games combined, as they both almost crack the top-30 of the country in points scored, with 79.4 ppg combined. Their defense has also been in bad shape, as they have conceded 66 and 61 total points in their last two games respectively. Take the over 58.5 points in this one.