LSU vs USC Prediction 9-1-24 College Football Picks

The USC Trojans and LSU Tigers meet Sunday in week 1 college football action at Allegiant Stadium. Here’s an LSU vs USC Prediction. This article will include an LSU vs USC Pick.

USC Trojans Betting Preview

The USC Trojans have won a combined 19 games in the last 2 seasons and enter the third year under coach Lincoln Riley. USC hopes to make three straight bowl trips for the first time since 2015-17. Miller Moss replaces Caleb Williams at quarterback, and he has 92 career pass attempts with 9 touchdowns. USC gets a big-time transfer in Mississippi State running back Woody Marks, who has 1,883 rushing yards, 22 rushing touchdowns and 214 receptions. There are high-level recruits all over this USC offense, so while household names are gone, the potential for success is still intriguing.

Defensively, Mason Cobb returns after leading USC with 85 tackles, Jamil Muhammad had 6.5 sacks and Jacobe Covington had 1 interception. USC is going to be fun to watch with the talent on both sides of the ball, but the improvement of the defense will determine just how far the Trojans can go. USC will meet Utah State and Michigan after this one.

LSU Tigers Betting Preview

The LSU Tigers are coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons and enter the third year under coach Brian Kelly. LSU hasn’t had three straight double-digit winning seasons since 2011-13. Garrett Nussmeier replaces Jayden Daniels at quarterback, and he has 219 career pass attempts for 1,720 yards and 11 touchdowns. It could take time for Nussmeier to get comfortable in a full-time starting role, but he has an impressive offensive line to back him up. Will Campbell and Emery Jones are two guys who could be selected in the first round come April. Wide receiver transfers Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State) and CJ Daniels (Liberty) bolster the skill positions.

Defensively, Major Burns returns after leading LSU with 93 tackles, Harold Perkins Jr. had 5.5 sacks and Zy Alexander had 2 interceptions. Some would argue the LSU secondary is a concern, but there’s enough here for LSU to be a factor in the SEC and possibly sneak into the CFB playoff for the first time since 2019. LSU will face Nicholls and South Carolina following this game.

Why the LSU Tigers will win

• The favorite has won each of LSU’s last eight games.
• USC has lost 10 of its last 11 games against AP-ranked teams.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 games played at neutral venues.
• The favorite has covered the spread in seven of LSU’s last eight games.
• LSU has won the first quarter in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.
• LSU has won the first half in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Sixteen of LSU’s last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of USC’s last six games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• LSU ranked 1st among FBS teams for points per game last season (45.5).
• LSU ranked 1st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (11.8).
• USC ranked 3rd among FBS teams for points per game last season (41.8).
• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.5).

LSU vs USC Prediction

You can make a case for the USC Trojans and the points because you’re not going to get them in decent-sized underdog spots like this very often. The problem is we’ve seen this story before in a clash against a high-level SEC program in a big game opening week, and it usually doesn’t end well. LSU is the bigger, more physical team in the trenches, and that stands out a lot opening week when teams are still ironing out the wrinkles.

USC is breaking in inexperienced talent, especially on offense, and this isn’t an ideal warm-up spot. I just trust SEC programs to bully opposing teams that aren’t used to its level of physicality. I believe that to be the case here against USC. Give me LSU by a touchdown.