Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction Football Picks 10-7-23

Massachusetts vs Toledo Prediction Football Picks 10-7-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Toledo Rockets and the UMass Minutemen meet Saturday in college football action from McGuirk Alumni Stadium. Toledo’s last outing was versus Northern Illinois over the weekend. The Rockets would go on to power out a two-point win. As for UMass, they played Arkansas State In their sixth game of the year. The Minutemen would go on to lose by 24 points. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.

Toledo Rockets 

The Rockets stood tall versus Illinois in their opener this year but eventually lost 30-28. The Rockets hit a win streak after that however, taking out Texas Southern 71-3, San Jose State 21-17 and Western Michigan 49-31 in the next three outings. In the win over the Broncos, Rockets QB DeQuan Finn posted 119 yards, two scores and two picks. 

Matched up against Northern Illinois last weekend, the Rockets put up points in every quarter during a back-and-forth win 35-33. Finn bagged 281 yards with two scores in this one, while Peny Boone added 113 rush yards. Junior Vandeross caught four balls for 147 yards and a TD. 

Toledo Rockets Team Facts

The favorite has won each of Toledo's last seven games.
The underdog has covered the spread in 10 of Toledo's last 12 games.
Toledo has won the first half in three of its last four games against opponents from the FBS Independents.
Four of Toledo's last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

UMass Minutemen

Over on the Minutemen’s side, they’ve got six games in the books already this year. UMass was able to power out a win over New Mexico State 41-30 in their opener, but the next four were all losses. In that quartet came defeats by Auburn 59-14, Miami-OH 41-28, Eastern Michigan 19-17 and New Mexico 34-31 in overtime. 

Back on Saturday against Arkansas State, UMass chalked up another defeat. The Minutemen gave up double-digit points in each of the first three quarters during a loss 52-28. QB Taisun Phommachanh put up 269 yards, one TD and one interception. Mark Pope was the leading receiver on his 85 yards off six catches. 

Massachusetts Minutemen Team Facts

Massachusetts has lost 14 of its last 15 games.
Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
Massachusetts has lost the first half in 10 of its last 11 home games against non-conference opponents.
Each of Massachusetts' last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Massachusetts ranked 35th among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (4.6).
Massachusetts scored fewer than 15 points in six road games last season - most of any FBS team.
Toledo ranked T6th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.714).
Toledo ranked 18th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game last season (11.3).


I’ll probably stick with Toledo. The Rockets had a tough time dispatching a pesky NIU team in their last outing, giving up 444 total yards and 22 first downs. Toledo held the Huskies to just 2-of-10 on third-down tries though, and came up with 542 total yards (261 rushing) themselves. There’s still plenty to improve on though, such as the eight penalties and 2-of-10 rate on third-down tries. 

As for UMass, they had another difficult loss in their last outing. The Minutemen didn’t do themselves any favors with 12 penalties for 127 yards though, and couldn’t stop Arkansas State’s 556 total yards (383 passing). I don’t think they’ll keep pace with Toledo either. 

Andrew Jett's Free Pick:Toledo Rockets -20