Arkansas State Red Wolves (0-0) vs. Memphis Tigers (1-0)
September 5, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Memphis Tigers -8.5; Over/Under: 53.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Memphis Tigers meet Saturday in college football action from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis. Here’s a Memphis vs Arkansas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Memphis vs Arkansas State pick.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
The Red Wolves had a pretty decent season in 2025, all things considered. Arkansas State managed to power out a 7-6 overall record with a 5-3 run in the Sun Belt. In the conference standings the Red Wolves finished behind Troy, Southern Miss and Louisiana in the West Division. Season highlights included a 6-2 run to finish off the schedule, the team’s first-ever game versus Arkansas (which the Red Wolves lost 56-14) and an Xbox Bowl victory versus Missouri State 34-28.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Red Wolves will get head coach Butch Jones back on the sideline for his sixth season. He’ll be joined by new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman. They’ll have to do without QB Jaylen Raynor (Iowa State) this year, but key skill guys like Chauncy Cobb, Hunter Summers and Jaylen Bonelli will be back in the fold. By most indications, Arkansas State’s offense will be employing a run-first spread philosophy this season.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
Over on the Memphis side, they had some ups and downs in the 2025 campaign. The Tigers went a respectable 8-5 overall, but could only manage a 4-4 run in American Conference games. That would leave Memphis behind Tulane, North Texas, Navy, South Florida and East Carolina in the standings. After an invite to the Gasparilla Bowl, the Tigers left with a 31-7 blowout loss versus NC State to finish off the campaign on a down note.
Matched up against UNLV in their opener on August 29, the Tigers were down by a score going into the second half 14-7. Memphis posted a 20-7 run the rest of the way however, and ended up taking the comeback victory 27-21. QB Marcus Stokes had a 15-of-26 line for 223 yards and two scores. Top rusher Jaylin Carter had 97 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries and Jemyri Davis had three catches for 62 yards.
Why the Memphis Tigers will win
- Arkansas State has lost each of its last seven games against teams from Tennessee.
- Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games in September.
- Arkansas State has lost the first half in each of its last seven games against opponents from the American Conference.
Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win
- Arkansas State has won five of its last six games as an underdog.
- Arkansas State has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog.
- Arkansas State has won the first quarter in three of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Arkansas State’s last eight games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Memphis Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Tychaun Chapman ranked 22nd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (17.9) last season.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts
- Kenyon Clay ranked 7th amongst qualified players for catch rate (90.2%) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Memphis ranked 4th among FBS teams for red zone percentage last season (93.8).
- Memphis ranked 6th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game last season (3.2).
- Arkansas State ranked 131st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game last season (9.2).
- Arkansas State ranked 120th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (3.4).
Memphis vs Arkansas State Prediction
I’ll lean toward Memphis. The Tigers had a great second half versus UNLV last weekend and got their season started out right with a nice road victory. Memphis posted 418 yards (223 passing) in that one with 7.0 yards per play and 20 first downs. The 3-of-11 success rate on third-down tries really needs some work, though. Defensively the Tigers gave up 460 yards (291 passing) and 23 first downs but held the Rebels to just 3-of-15 on third downs.
As for Arkansas State, they’ve got some question marks heading into the season, thanks mostly to a massive bit of roster turnover. The team added 33 new transfers among 50 total defensive players this year, so that unit needs to establish an identity quickly. Safeties AG McGhee and Brandon Barnes will be critical pieces in getting the new arrivals to gel. This game should provide a stout early test for the team.
