Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction Football Picks Today 10/10/26

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Michigan State Spartans meet in week 6 college football action from Spartan Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recap

The Illinois Fighting Illini come into this game looking to bounce back from a 24-17 loss at the hands of Purdue last time out to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, Illinois will head home for a game against Oregon.

Illini Lose Back-To-Back Games

Katin Houser has thrown for 1,246 yards, 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 65.8% passing while Aidan Laughery leads Illinois in rushing with 321 yards and a touchdown through 5 games this season. Ca’Lil Valentine sits behind Laughery on the ground with 225 yards and a touchdown. Collin Dixon leads the Fighting Illini in receiving with 546 yards and 40 catches along with 8 touchdowns, while Hudson Clement trails with 299 yards and 21 catches. On defense, Matthew Bailey has a team-high 37 tackles while Illinois’ defense as a whole has combined for 3 sacks and 2 interceptions through 5 games this season.

Michigan State Spartans Recap

The Michigan State Spartans come into this game looking to rebound from a 31-3 loss at the hands of Wisconsin last time out to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, the Spartans will take on Northwestern at home.

Spartans Drop 3 Straight

Alessio Milivojevic has thrown for 851 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.0% passing while Cam Edwards leads Michigan State in rushing with 304 yards and 3 touchdowns through 5 games this season. Jaziun Patterson sits behind Edwards on the ground with 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rodney Bullard Jr. leads the Spartans in receiving with 206 yards and 15 catches along with a touchdown, while Jayden Savoury trails with 179 yards and 17 catches. On defense, Devin Vaught has a team-high 33 tackles while Michigan State’s defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and an interception through 5 games this season.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• The underdog has won three of the last four games between Illinois and Michigan State.
• Illinois has lost four of its last five road games.
• Illinois has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite.
• The underdog has covered the spread in five of Illinois’ last six games.
• Michigan State has won the first half in five of its last six games against teams from Illinois.
• Michigan State has won the first quarter in four of its last six October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win

• Michigan State has lost each of its last 13 games as an underdog.
• The favorite has won each of Michigan State’s last 11 games.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Spartan Stadium.
• Illinois has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a road favorite.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last 13 games as an underdog.
• The favorite has won the first quarter in each of Michigan State’s last seven games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Illinois’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Liam Boyd ranks T8th amongst FBS players for made field goals (9) this season.

Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Collin Dixon ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State has lost the fourth quarter in each of its last three games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
• Michigan State ranks T6th among FBS teams for sacks this season (17.0).
• Illinois ranks T133rd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (100.0).
• Illinois ranks 129th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (68.8).

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction

I’m on Illinois in this one. I think it’s telling that Illinois is favored on the road here, and Michigan State has been an up and down team to begin with but now have to focus on Northwestern with Pat Fitzgerald in a revenge spot against his former employer next week. I think this is going to be an interesting matchup but I lean Illinois here.