Michigan State vs Western Michigan Prediction Football Picks Today 8/29/25

In this article we will formulate a Michigan State vs Western Michigan prediction for this College Football game on Friday, August 29th at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup. 

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans went 5-7 (3-6) last year and they finished tied for 12th in the Big Ten with Nebraska, UCLA, and Wisconsin. Michigan State started the season by winning their first three games, but they lost seven of their last nine and missed out on a bowl game. The Spartans picked up wins against FAU, Maryland, Prairie View A&M, Iowa, and Purdue, but lost to Boston College, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Rutgers. Michigan State scored 19.3 points per game last year, which was ranked 123rd in the nation, while they allowed 26.1 points against per game, which was ranked 77th. 

This year, Michigan State will continue to have Aidan Chiles under center, but he has had some major turnover issues so far in his career. The Spartans also return Nick Marsh, who is one of the better receivers in the Big Ten, and they added at that position in the portal. MSU does have a new offensive line, so that will be a key to the offense. On defense, Michigan State does have some returning production, but they need the offense to help out and limit the turnovers to help with field position. 

Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview

The Western Michigan Broncos were 6-7 (5-3) last season and they finished fifth in the MAC standings. Western Michigan won five of their first eight games, but lost three of their last four regular season games to fade in the standings. The Broncos picked up wins against Bethune-Cookman, Ball State, Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, and Eastern Michigan, while they lost to Wisconsin, Ohio State, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Central Michigan. WMU did qualify for the Veterans Bowl, where they lost to South Alabama by a score of 30-23. Western Michigan scored 28.9 points per game in 2024, which was ranked 58th in the nation, while they allowed 31.3 points against per game, which was 107th. 

This season, Western Michigan has a quarterback battle, so it will either be Brady Jones or Broc Lowry under center. The Broncos have a ton of transfer help at receiver, running back, and offensive line, but they do have a very good tight end. Western’s offense really struggled in 2024 and I think they will start slow here. On defense, Western Michigan had a very poor 2024 season and they also lost a good amount of starters, so that unit is going to struggle once again. 

Why Michigan State will beat Western Michigan

• Western Michigan has lost each of its last nine games against opponents from the Big Ten Conference.
• The favorite has won 24 of Western Michigan’s last 25 games.
• Western Michigan has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games against opponents from the Big Ten Conference.
• The favorite has covered the spread in seven of Western Michigan’s last eight games.
• Michigan State has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Michigan State has won the first half in each of its last 11 games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Western Michigan’s last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Michigan State’s last four games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranked T132nd among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (1.9).
• Michigan State ranked 132nd among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (6.9).
• Western Michigan ranked 134th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (81.3).
• Western Michigan ranked 124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game last season (8.6).

Michigan State vs Western Michigan Prediction 

Michigan State comes into this season looking to start with some positive momentum like they did last year, and they should be able to win comfortably here. I don’t love this Michigan State team and I think they will have some issues this season, but there are too many question marks surrounding this Western Michigan side. I am not sold on Western’s offense or defense, so give me MSU to cover this big number.