College Football

Military Bowl: Duke vs UCF 12/28/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

Duke Blue Devils (8-4) vs. UCF Knights (9-4)
December 28, 2022 2:00 pm EDT
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -2.5 / UCF Knights +2.5; Over/Under: +62.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Duke Blue Devils and UCF Knights clash Wednesday in the college football Military Bowl from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

The UCF Knights come into this one at 9-4 on behalf of the AAC following their defeat to Tulane in the AAC title game. John Rhys Plumlee has thrown for 2,404 yards, 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 63.1% passing while also leading UCF in rushing with 841 yards along with 11 touchdowns. Isaiah Bowser has 760 rushing yards with a team-high 14 touchdowns and Johnny Richardson also has 340 rushing yards as well this season. RJ Harvey’s also chipped in 767 rushing yards and Javon Baker leads UCF’s receivers with 54 grabs for 747 yards along with 5 TDs. On defense, Jason Johnson has a team-high 122 total tackles while Tre’Mon Morris-Brash has a team-high 5 sacks.

The Duke Blue Devils will enter at 8-4 on behalf of the ACC in Mike Elko’s first year as head coach. Riley Leonard has thrown for 2,794 yards, 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 63.6% passing while also rushing for a team-high 636 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jordan Waters has 561 rushing yards with 8 touchdowns while Jaylen Coleman has 465 rushing yards with 4 scores and Jaquez Moore has 427 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Jalon Calhoun has 56 grabs for 811 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns while Jordan Moore has 643 receiving yards coming on a team-high 57 catches with 5 TDs. Two more Duke receivers have 300+ receiving yards while three more Blue Devils each have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Shaka Heyward has a team-high 93 total tackles with 48 solo tackles while DeWayne Carter s and Brandon Johnson each have 5.5 sacks this season.

UCF is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the ACC and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games on turf while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 neutral site games.

I get the case to be made for UCF in some spots, but the way I see it is that UCF was heavily reliant on John Rhys Plumlee this season and he was limited in the AAC title game. This game will give him some time to recoup, but I don’t know if he’ll fully be at 100% and with backup QB Mikey Keene hitting the transfer portal, it doesn’t give the Knights much wiggle room. Duke came on strong to close out Mike Elko’s first year in charge and I think they cap it off in style with a win in this bowl game.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick: Duke -2.5

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Chris Ruffolo

Chris joined the Sports Chat Place team in August 2016 and has a proven system that combines multiple analytical and situational statistics and trends to give out thousands of winning picks over the last three years with winning records across all of the top leagues, Follow Chris Ruffolo on Twitter @ruffthepickdawg

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