Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0)
October 3, 2026 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs 5.5 / Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5; Over/Under: 60.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction. This article will include a Mississippi State vs. Alabama Pick.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
The Alabama Crimson Tide beat South Carolina and Florida State, and they play Georgia next. Alabama looks for its first 5-0 start since the 2022 season. Keelon Russell is completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,129 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks have combined for 589 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Rico Scott has 12 receptions.
The Alabama Crimson Tide ground game is averaging 188.3 yards per contest, and Daniel Hill leads the way with 225 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Alabama is allowing 20.3 points and 315.3 yards per game. Caleb Woodson leads the Alabama Crimson Tide with 30 tackles, Devan Thompkins has 3 sacks, and Red Morgan has 2 interceptions.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs beat Missouri and South Carolina, and they play LSU next. Mississippi State looks to start 5-0 for the first time since the 2014 season. Kamario Taylor is completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 1,192 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Anthony Evans III and Sanfrisco Magee have combined for 616 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Marquis Johnson has 11 receptions.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ ground game is averaging 217.8 yards per contest, and Fluff Bothwell leads the way with 402 yards and 3 touchdowns. On defense, Mississippi State allows 21 points and 353.8 yards per game. Jalen Smith leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 28 tackles, Jaray Bledsoe has 1.5 sacks, and Dre Riley has 1 interception.
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
- Mississippi State has won each of its last four games.
- Alabama has lost three of its last four games against AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven road games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
- Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
- Mississippi State has won the first half in seven of its last eight home games as an AP-ranked team.
- Mississippi State has won the first quarter in four of its last six games as an underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win
- Alabama has won each of its last 19 games against teams from Mississippi.
- Mississippi State has lost each of its last 11 games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven home games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has covered the spread in each of its last six games against Mississippi State.
- Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last 11 games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against Mississippi State.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Mississippi State’s last seven home games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Alabama’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Kamario Taylor ranks T1st amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (14) this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Conor Talty ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Mississippi State ranks 4th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (533.3).
- Mississippi State ranks 5th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (109).
- Alabama has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Alabama ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction
Alabama is the better team, but this is a lot of points to give a talented Mississippi State squad that’s unbeaten both SU and ATS. Mississippi State has one of the best offenses in the country, led by an up-and-coming star quarterback, and the defense is strong against the run. Mississippi State has the horses to match Alabama and make this a fourth-quarter game. Throw in a hostile environment and one of the bigger games in Starkville in recent memory, and this feels like a dogfight for Alabama. This game should come down to the final minutes, and I want points in my pocket.
