Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction 10-26-24 College Football Picks
Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-6)
October 26, 2024 12:45 pm EDT
The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs +7 / Arkansas Razorbacks -7; Over/Under: +57.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Arkansas Razorbacks and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in week 9 college football action at Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction. This article will include a Mississippi State vs Arkansas Pick.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview
The Arkansas Razorbacks beat Tennessee, lost to LSU, and they play Ole Miss next. The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost 4 of their last 6 road games. Taylen Green is completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,741 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Andrew Armstrong and Isaiah Sategna have combined for 1,012 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Isaac TeSlaa has 10 receptions.
The Arkansas Razorbacks ground game is averaging 176.4 yards per contest, and Ja’Quinden Jackson leads the way with 592 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas is allowing 21.3 points and 331.7 yards per game. Xavian Sorey Jr. leads the Arkansas Razorbacks with 49 tackles, Landon Jackson has 2.5 sacks and TJ Metcalf has 3 interceptions.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs lost to Georgia and Texas A&M, and they play Massachusetts next. Mississippi State has lost 3 straight home games. Blake Shapen is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 974 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kevin Coleman Jr. and Mario Craver have combined for 891 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Kelly Akharaiyi has 15 receptions.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs ground game is averaging 126.7 yards per contest, and Johnnie Daniels leads the way with 312 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Mississippi State is allowing 33.3 points and 449.7 yards per game. Isaac Smith leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 68 tackles, Braden Jennings has 1.5 sacks and Elijah Cannon has 1 interception.
Why the Arkansas Razorbacks will win
- Mississippi State has lost each of its last eight games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has won 18 of Mississippi State’s last 19 games at Davis Wade Stadium.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games as a home underdog.
- Arkansas has covered the spread in each of its last four road games in October.
- Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Mississippi State’s last five home games in October has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Arkansas’ last four games as a favorite has gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Mississippi State ranks 131st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (14.9).
- Mississippi State ranks 130th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (21.7).
- Arkansas ranks 6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (177).
- Arkansas ranks 9th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (52.0).
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction
The Arkansas Razorbacks are the more talented team and should win on the road, but they’re also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Mississippi State Bulldogs have covered each of their last 3 games, and their offense has shown improvement over their last couple of efforts. Arkansas has failed to cover 7 of its last 9 games when favorites of 7 or more points. I’ll take a stab with Mississippi State and the points at home.
