Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction 11/15/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction for this College Football Week 12 game on Saturday, November 15^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Missouri Tigers Preview

Missouri has a 6-3 record this season and is sitting 9th in the SEC. They are 4-4-1 ATS, 5-4-0 in Over/Under and have a 5-2 home record and a 1-1 away record. Missouri is coming off a 17-38 home loss against Texas A&M and will face Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas next.

Offensively, Missouri averages 33.3 points per game, ranking 30th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 19.1 points per game, which is 21st. Missouri averages 451.8 total yards per game (219.4 passing and 232.4 rushing), while allowing 270.0 total yards per game (107.3 rushing and 162.7 passing).

Beau Pribula leads Missouri with 1,685 passing yards with 69.6% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Jamal Roberts leads the team in rushing yards with 538, while Marquis Johnson has a team-high 28 receptions for 340 receiving yards. Defensively, Josiah Trotter has a team-high 59 total tackles (30 of them solo), while Damon Wilson II leads the team in sacks, with 6.5.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

Mississippi State has a 5-5 record this season and is sitting 13th in the SEC. They are 8-2-0 ATS, 5-5-0 in Over/Under and have a 3-3 home record and a 2-2 away record. Mississippi State is coming off a 21-41 home loss against Georgia and will face Missouri and Ole Miss next.

Offensively, Mississippi State averages 32.0 points per game, ranking 48th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 26.3 points per game, which is 85th. Mississippi State averages 399.6 total yards per game (242.8 passing and 156.8 rushing), while allowing 388.7 total yards per game (176.2 rushing and 212.5 passing).

Blake Shapen leads Mississippi State with 2,234 passing yards with 65.2% completed passes and 15 touchdowns. Davon Booth leads the team in rushing yards with 513, while Anthony Evans III has a team-high 56 receptions for 680 receiving yards. Defensively, Jahron Manning has a team-high 70 total tackles (28 of them solo), while Will Whitson leads the team in sacks, with 2, and Brylan Lanier has a team-high 3 interceptions.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Missouri Tigers Betting Trends: Week 12

Why the Missouri Tigers will win

• Missouri has won each of its last 22 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has lost 17 of its last 18 games against conference opponents.
• Missouri has covered the spread in each of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last nine road games against conference opponents.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Missouri has lost three of its last four games.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 road games in November.
• Missouri has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home games.
• Mississippi State has won the first quarter in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• Missouri has lost the first half in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of Mississippi State’s last 10 November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Missouri’s last four games against teams from Mississippi have gone OVER the total points line.

Missouri Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Ahmad Hardy has recorded 50+ rushing yards in 18 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 12.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 12, Ethan Pulliam ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (48.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri ranks 4th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (33:35).
• Missouri ranks T6th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (131).
• Mississippi State has given up the largest 3rd quarter lead to win a game this season – 17 points vs Texas.
• Mississippi State ranks 127th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (9.2).

Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction

In this Mississippi State vs Missouri Prediction, Missouri is coming as -7-point home favorites, with the total set at 51.5 points. Both teams have almost the same number of wins this season and are both coming into this matchup in poor form. Missouri is 1-3 in its last 4 games and 1-4-1 against the spread in its last 6, while Mississippi State is 1-5 in its last 6 and 8-2 against the spread this season. Missouri has been a top-30 team both offensively and defensively this season, winning by an average of 14.2 points per game. The value here lies with the home team, so take Missouri and lay the -7 points.