Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0)
September 27, 2025 4:15 pm EDT
The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs 7.5 / Tennessee Volunteers -7.5; Over/Under: 63.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Tennessee Volunteers and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in college football action at Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction. This article will include a Mississippi State vs Tennessee Pick.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview
The Tennessee Volunteers beat UAB, lost to Georgia, and play Arkansas next. Tennessee has won 13 of its last 17 games. Joey Aguilar is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,124 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Chris Brazzell II and Braylon Staley have combined for 707 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Mike Matthews has 16 receptions.
The Tennessee Volunteers ground game is averaging 216.3 yards per contest, and Star Thomas leads the way with 272 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Tennessee is allowing 27.8 points and 372.3 yards per game. Arion Carter leads the Tennessee Volunteers with 32 tackles, Joshua Josephs has 3 sacks and Ty Redmond has 1 interception.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs beat Alcorn State and Northern Illinois, and they play Texas A&M next. Mississippi State has won 4 straight games. Blake Shapen is completing 67 percent of his passes for 884 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III have combined for 591 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Jordan Mosley has 4 receptions.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs ground game is averaging 207 yards per contest, and Fluff Bothwell leads the way with 271 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Mississippi State is allowing 11.8 points and 265.5 yards per game. Isaac Smith leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 24 tackles, Will Whitson has 2 sacks and Brylan Lanier has 1 interception.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
- Mississippi State has won each of its last four games.
- Tennessee has lost three of its last four road games.
- Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last six games against AP-ranked teams.
- Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four road games.
Why the Tennessee Volunteers will win
- Mississippi State has lost each of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
- Tennessee has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 home games against conference opponents.
- Tennessee has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in September.
- Tennessee has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Tennessee’s last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Mississippi State’s last four home games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jayven Williams leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Tennessee Volunteers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Chris Brazzell II ranks 1st amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Mississippi State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
- Mississippi State has won the first quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
- Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+19.0).
- Tennessee ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction
Tennessee is getting a lot of love, and I’m just not buying it. I’m still not over that Tennessee – Georgia matchup, a game the Vols just couldn’t finish. While explosive offensively, Tennessee can’t stop the pass and is 100th in scoring defense. Not great to win on the road. Mississippi State hasn’t had the toughest schedule in the world outside of a win over Arizona State, but it’s a balanced team that plays defense and has been able to score. This line feels disrespectful toward Mississippi State, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see an outright upset. I’m just not convinced by Tennessee.
