Massachusetts Minutemen (0-3) vs. Missouri Tigers (4-0)
September 27, 2025 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Missouri Tigers -42.5 / Over/Under:
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The UMass Minutemen and the Missouri Tigers meet Saturday in college football action from Faurot Field. Here’s a Missouri vs UMass prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Missouri vs UMass pick.
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview
UMass has only played three games so far this year, with almost no luck in any of them. First came an opener matchup versus Temple on August 30. The Minutemen were down 28-10 by the end of the second quarter and didn’t score again during a 42-10 defeat. UMass went just 3-of-11 on third-down tries in that loss while giving up 467 yards to the Owls. In game two versus Bryant, UMass played their closest game of the year so far. The Minutemen were outscored 17-6 in the second half though, and ended up losing a tough one 27-26. This time the Minutemen offense accounted for 358 yards total, while the team committed nine penalties.
In their latest outing back on September 13 versus Iowa, the Minutemen fell back into blowout loss territory. UMass gave up 30 points in the first half alone, limping to a 47-7 defeat. QB Grant Jordan was 9-of-14 for just 37 yards, and Rocko Griffin led the rush on 10 carries for 28 yards. Jacquon Gibson caught five balls for 37 yards to top the receivers in the loss, and Donnie Gray had two grabs for 27 yards.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Over on the Tigers’ side, they’ve managed to play four games so far this season. The opener was a matchup against Central Arkansas and things went pretty routinely. Missouri walked away from that one with an easy 61-6 blowout win. Game two was a little trickier, but the Tigers managed to power out a 42-31 win at home over Kansas there. In the September 13 game versus Louisiana, Missouri again flexed their muscles. The Tigers scored 24 points in the second quarter alone, rolling to a 52-10 win. Missouri held the Cajuns to just 121 total yards in the blowout, with only four of those coming via the pass.
Matched up against South Carolina on Saturday, the Tigers were in trouble at the start of the fourth quarter and facing a 20-18 deficit. After 11 unanswered points however, Missouri had a win 29-20 in comeback fashion. QB Beau Pribula finished on 16-of-27 passing for 171 yards, one TD and one pick. Ahmad Hardy rushed 22 times for 138 yards and a score, while topping the receivers was Marquis Johnson with seven grabs for 80 yards.
Massachusetts Minutemen @ Missouri Tigers Betting Trends: Week 5
Missouri Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Ahmad Hardy has recorded 100+ rushing yards in six consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 5.
Massachusetts Minutemen Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jacquon Gibson has the most targets without a receiving touchdown this season (40).
Matchup/League Facts
- Missouri has won the fourth quarter in each of its last nine games – longest active streak in the FBS.
- Missouri ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (37:11).
- Massachusetts ranks 136th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (2.0).
- Massachusetts ranks 135th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (259.7).
Missouri vs UMass Prediction
I’ll probably lean toward Missouri but I’m also probably not touching this one. The Tigers weren’t looking so great heading into the fourth quarter last weekend versus South Carolina but the good news is that they were able to grit out a win. Missouri finished with 456 yards (285 rushing), 29 first downs and a 7-of-13 success rate on thirds. Defensively the Tigers gave up 302 passing yards but also held the Gamecocks to minus-nine rush yards, 15 first downs and a 3-of-11 success rate on third-down conversions. South Carolina’s 14 penalties for 98 yards certainly helped the cause as well. The 29 points were Missouri’s lowest total of the season, but they’ve only given up more than 20 points once in four games so far.
As for UMass, there’s not a lot to get excited about through three games this year. Sure, the Minutemen are coming off a tough matchup against Iowa, but it’s not going to get any easier this weekend. UMass was able to notch only 119 total yards (93 passing) against the Hawkeyes, going a futile 0-of-12 on third- and fourth-down tries. Sure, the offense has had a little extra time to prep for this one but I don’t think it’ll matter much in the long run.
