NC State vs North Carolina Prediction Football Picks 11-25-23

NC State vs North Carolina Prediction Football Picks 11-25-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the NC State Wolfpack meet Saturday in college football action from Carter-Finley. North Carolina is fresh off a Saturday matchup versus Clemson. The 8-3 Tar Heels went on to lose that one by 11 points. As for NC State, they played Virginia Tech over the weekend. The Wolfpack ended up improving to 8-3 with a one-score victory. Have a look at our North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction.

North Carolina Tar Heels 

The Tar Heels posted eight wins in their first 10 games this year during a pretty solid run. North Carolina hit 39.8 points per game on average during that time, logging 321.9 yards per game, 22 scores and six picks through the air. The Tar Heels’ rush generated 198.7 yards per game with 25 scores and 4.9 yards per carry. 

Back on Saturday versus Clemson, the Tar Heels gave up 14 points in both the second and third quarters during a 31-20 loss. Drake Maye threw for 209 yards, one TD and a pick. Omarion Hampton had a nice day rushing with 178 yards and two touchdowns, while Devontez Walker added four catches for 70 yards. 

North Carolina Tar Heels Team Facts

  • The home team has won each of North Carolina's last four games.
  • North Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last five games at Carter-Finley Stadium.
  • North Carolina has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
  • North Carolina has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
  • Four of North Carolina's last five November road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.


NC State Wolfpack 

Over on the Wolfpack’s side, they managed to win seven of their first 10 outings this year. NC State didn’t score quite as well with 24.6 points per game in that stretch, along with 180.3 yards per game, 13 TDs and 11 interceptions via the pass. The Wolfpack added 144.1 yards rushing per game and another 14 scores in that time as well. 

In their last match versus Virginia Tech, the Wolfpack posted 21 points in the second quarter and 14 more in the third on the way to a dramatic win 35-28. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong logged 203 yards with two touchdowns, while also leading the rush on 89 yards and two more scores. Kevin Conception also had two scores with 63 yards off seven catches. 

NC State Wolfpack Team Facts

  • NC State has won four of its last five November games as an underdog.
  • NC State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight November games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • NC State has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
  • NC State has won the first half in each of its last six home games against conference opponents.
  • Six of NC State's last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • NC State rank T30th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.2).
  • North Carolina rank T12th among FBS teams for points per game this season (38.1).


I’ll probably stick with NC State. We should have a fun matchup regardless, though. The Wolfpack did a nice job on defense versus Virginia Tech this past weekend—despite allowing 7.6 yards per play and 28 points. NC State gave up just 17 first downs and 1-of-7 on third-down tries, though. The Wolfpack are on a nice four-game win streak right now, scoring 20 or more points in each of those games. 

As for North Carolina, they posted 457 yards (209 passing) versus Clemson in their loss last weekend, but also gave away three turnovers and had 10 penalties for 75 yards. The Tar Heels left a lot of points out on the field; it was their lowest total all year. I like UNC to bounce back in this one, but I think NC State will be ready cover-wise. Should be a great game to watch. 

Andrew Jett's Free Pick:NC State Wolfpack +4