New Mexico Lobos (7-1) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5)
November 6, 2026 9:00 pm EDT
The Line: Nevada Wolf Pack 295 / New Mexico Lobos -375; Over/Under: 37.5
(Get latest betting odds)
Nevada vs New Mexico Prediction
New Mexico comes into this matchup undefeated in the Mountain West and while their offense is very low scoring, they have allowed 16 or fewer points in four straight games. Nevada has lost three of their last five games, but they are 2-0 in their last two home games. The Wolf Pack have been pretty inconsistent this year, but they were shutout last week and will struggle to move the ball once again here. This is a super low total, but I am going to back New Mexico to cover, as their defense is elite.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview
The Nevada Wolf Pack are 3-5 (2-2) this season after they lost to UCLA by a score of 27-0 in their last game. Nevada trailed 17-0 at halftime and they were outscored 10-0 in the second half in the shutout loss. The Wolf Pack were out gained by a total of 303-176, went 5-16 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 4-0 in the game. AJ Bianco threw for 71 yards, while Luke Duncan threw for 36 yards and three interceptions. Marshaun Brown caught three passes for 51 yards, while Herschel Turner rushed 11 times for 28 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, Nevada defeated San Jose State by a score of 28-13, but lost to North Dakota State by a score of 31-17 before that. The Wolf Pack have scored 23.0 points per game with 169.0 passing yards and 167.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.6 points against per game this season. AJ Bianco has thrown for 397 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, while Gary Givens III has 19 receptions for 305 yards and one score. Dominic Kelly has rushed 118 times for 588 yards and five touchdowns this season.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The New Mexico Lobos are 7-1 (4-0) this year after they defeated San Jose State by a score of 21-16 in their last game. New Mexico led 14-9 at halftime and they were able to get the win, despite scoring just seven points in the second half. The Lobos out gained San Jose State by a total of 342-238, went 3-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-2 in the game. Toa Fa’avae threw for 101 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, while Cade Keith caught two passes for 30 yards and one score. Kiefer Sibley rushed 12 times for 102 yards in the win.
Prior to that victory, New Mexico defeated North Dakota State by a score of 21-16 and Hawaii by a score of 21-10. The Lobos have scored 35.0 points per game with 148.0 passing yards and 213.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.9 points against per game this season. Toa Fa’avae has thrown for 891 yards with six touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Cade Keith has caught 22 passes for 295 yards and three scores. Scottre Humphrey has rushed 111 times for 540 yards and 11 touchdowns this year.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won each of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
- Nevada has lost each of its last six games against AP-ranked teams.
- Nevada has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 home games in November.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of Nevada’s last five games at Mackay Stadium.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against Nevada.
- The team ranked 22nd in the AP Poll has won the first half in each of its last nine games.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Nevada’s last 10 November games as a home underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of New Mexico’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nevada Wolf Pack Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Dominic Kelley leads Nevada for touchdowns (6) this season.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Scottre Humphrey leads the Mountain West Conference for touchdowns (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Nevada ranks 138th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (3.4).
- Nevada ranks T137th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (1).
- New Mexico ranks 1st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (11.9).
- New Mexico has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
Positive Trends
As you can see, we have plenty of solid trends backing our New Mexico selection here. Nevada is just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 November home games and they have really struggled against ranked teams. New Mexico is first in the country in points against per game on defense and I think that unit will lead them to a win and cover here.
