Nevada vs Utah State Prediction 11/8/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Nevada vs Utah State Prediction for this College Football Week 11 game on Saturday, November 8^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Utah State Aggies Preview

Utah State has a 4-4 record this season and is sitting 7th in the MWC. They are 6-2 ATS, 4-4 in Over/Under and have a 4-0 home record and a 0-4 away record. Utah State is coming off a 14-33 road loss against New Mexico and will face Nevada-Las Vegas, Fresno State and Boise State next.

Offensively, Utah State averages 31.5 points per game, ranking 50th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 31.8 points per game, which is 118th. Utah State averages 413.1 total yards per game (252.9 passing and 160.3 rushing), while allowing 444.0 total yards per game (185.8 rushing and 258.3 passing).

Bryson Barnes leads Utah State with 1,808 passing yards with 64.1% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Miles Davis leads the team in rushing yards with 576, while Braden Pegan has a team-high 39 receptions for 654 receiving yards. Defensively, John Miller has a team-high 72 total tackles (19 of them solo), while John Miller leads the team in sacks, with 5.5, and Noah Avinger has a team-high 3 interceptions.

Nevada Wolf Pack Preview

Nevada has a 1-7 record this season and is sitting 12th in the MWC. They are 3-4 ATS, 2-6 in Over/Under and have a 1-3 home record and a 0-4 away record. Nevada is coming off a 3-24 home loss against Boise State and will face San Jose State, Wyoming and Nevada-Las Vegas next.

Offensively, Nevada averages 14.0 points per game, ranking 133rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 27.5 points per game, which is 90th. Nevada averages 295.4 total yards per game (157.6 passing and 137.8 rushing), while allowing 366.4 total yards per game (154.1 rushing and 212.3 passing).

Carter Jones leads Nevada with 517 passing yards with 65.3% completed passes and 3 touchdowns. Caleb Ramseur leads the team in rushing yards with 240, while Marcus Bellon has a team-high 13 receptions for 134 receiving yards. Defensively, Dylan Labarbera has a team-high 52 total tackles (33 of them solo), while Dylan Labarbera leads the team in sacks, with 4.0, and EJ Smith has a team-high 2 interceptions.

Nevada Wolf Pack @ Utah State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Utah State Aggies will win

• Nevada has lost each of its last 15 games against conference opponents.
• The home team has won each of Utah State’s last 12 games.
• Utah State has covered the spread in each of its last six home games.
• Nevada has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Utah State has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
• Nevada has lost the first half in each of its last six games against conference opponents.

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win

• Utah State has lost three of its last four games.
• Nevada has covered the spread in four of its last five November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Nevada’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Utah State’s last five games in November have gone OVER the total points line.

Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Miles Davis ranks T2nd amongst qualified players for catch rate (95.5%) this season.

Nevada Wolf Pack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Dylan Labarbera ranks 1st in the Mountain West Conference for sacks (6.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Utah State ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (12.9).
• Utah State is one of only four FBS teams with 100% success rate on field goals this season.
• Nevada ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (1.5).
• Nevada ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (2.1).

Nevada vs Utah State Prediction

In this Nevada vs Utah State Prediction, Utah State is coming as -9.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 52.5 points. Nevada has been terrible this season with just one win in 8 games played and have six consecutive losses and are 2-4-1 against the spread in their last 7. The advantage for the home team offensively is huge, as Utah State scores 17.5 points more than Nevada, with the Aggies ranking 50^th in the country and the Wolf Pack being 4^th-worst. The value here lies with the home team, so take Utah State and lay the -9.5 in this one.