New Mexico State vs FIU Prediction Football Picks 10-4-23

New Mexico State vs FIU Prediction Football Picks 10-4-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Florida International Panthers and the New Mexico State Aggies meet Wednesday in college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium. FIU last played Liberty back on September 23, ultimately falling in a blowout loss. As for New Mexico State, they’re coming off a matchup versus Hawaii and an eventual three-point loss there. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place. 

FIU Panthers 

The Panthers lost their first game of the year 22-17 to Louisiana Tech on August 26. The good news for FIU is that they hit a three-game win streak after that. Those victories came 14-12 over Maine, 46-39 versus North Texas and 24-17 against UConn. Panthers QB Keyone Jenkins put up 284 yards and two scores in the win over the Huskies. 

Florida International stumbled again in their last matchup September 23 versus Liberty. The Panthers were down 24-6 at the break, giving up double-digit points in each of the first three quarters during a 38-6 blowout defeat. Jenkins had 133 yards and a pick on 9-of-21 passing in that one, and Chris Mitchell led the receivers on four catches for 89 yards. 

Florida International Panthers Team Facts

Florida International has lost 13 of its last 14 road games against conference opponents.
The underdog has covered the spread in five of Florida International's last six games.
Florida International has lost the first half in 15 of its last 18 games against conference opponents.
Five of Florida International's last six road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Mexico State Aggies 

Over on the New Mexico State side, they’ve been alternating wins and losses throughout their five games so far. The Aggies lost to UMass 41-30 to open up the season, then took out Western Illinois 58-21 in game two. Following a 33-17 loss to Liberty the next week, New Mexico State beat New Mexico in a nice 27-17 road win to get back to .500 on the year. 

The Aggies fell back into the loss column in their most recent game versus Hawaii. The Aggies had a 17-3 lead at halftime but were then outscored 17-0 in the second for a 20-17 loss. QB Diego Pavia posted 155 yards with two touchdowns and also led the rush with 97 yards off 12 carries. Jordin Parker had one 42-yard catch to lead the receivers. 

New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts

New Mexico State has lost 10 of its last 12 games in October.
New Mexico State has covered the spread in five of its last six October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
New Mexico State has won the first half in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
Ten of New Mexico State's last 11 games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

New Mexico State ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).
New Mexico State ranked T21st among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (3.9).
Florida International ranked 31st among FBS teams for Q3 points allowed per game last season (4.3).
Florida International suffered the largest margin of defeat of any FBS team last season (73-points vs Western Kentucky on September 24, 2022).


I’ll probably go with FIU here, but you could make a case either way. Both teams are coming off rough outings and could really use a good showing. FIU gained just 211 yards against a solid Liberty team in their latest loss, posting just 3.7 yards per play, 11 first downs, two turnovers and a 3-of-12 rate on third-down tries. The Panthers’ offense looks great when they’re firing on all cylinders and they’ll need to find that rhythm in this one. 

As for New Mexico State, they’ve scored 17 or more points in every game so far this year. That said, the Aggies have also given up 20 or more in four of five. I like New Mexico State to perform better here in a competitive matchup as FIU bangs out the cover. Should be a fun matchup. 

Andrew Jett's Free Pick:FIU Panthers +5.5