New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/2/25

New Mexico State and Sam Houston State meet Thursday in Week 6 college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium. Here’s a New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State pick. 

Sam Houston State is Awful

Sam Houston State has been awful heading into this game and they have lost all four of the games. Two games ago against Hawaii, Sam Houston State scored 20 points, while the defense gave up 37 points. In the last game against Texas, Sam Houston State scored zero points, while the defense gave up 55 points. Hunter Watson completed 13 of his 25 passes for 86 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. He was also the top rusher, finishing with 15 carries for 32 yards. They really need a more balanced offensive attack, and it’s going to start with getting their running game going early in this game. 

Overall this season, Sam Houston State is averaging 16.2 points while their defense is giving up 42.8 points per game. The offense is ranked 129th, while the defense is ranked 134th. The defense is an issue, but in this game, to find success, they are going to need to get the offense out to a fast start. Watson, on the season, has completed 55.8 percent of his passes for 396 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

New Mexico State is Ice Cold

New Mexico State won the first two games of the season against Bryant and Tulsa, but since that point, they have lost two games in a row. Two games ago against Louisiana Tech, the Aggies lost 49-14 and in the last game against New Mexico, they ended up losing 38-20. Logan Fife is under center, and he wasn’t awful, but he didn’t find the end zone with any of his passes. He completed 20 of his 37 passes for 255 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Donovan Faupel had a huge game and he caught six passes for 97 yards. 

New Mexico State is averaging 18.5 points while its defense is giving up 26 points per game. The offense is ranked 120th while the defense is ranked 83rd. Fife on the season has completed 54.1 percent of his passes for 1,017 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. 

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks 128th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (1.8).
• New Mexico State ranks 128th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (66).
• Sam Houston State ranks 136th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-10.0).
• Sam Houston State has lost the first quarter in each of its last four games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.

New Mexico State vs Sam Houston State Prediction

The wrong team is favored in this game, there is really no doubt about it. This Sam Houston State squad has an awful defense and they are giving up 42.8 points per game. New Mexico State has a big advantage on the mound with Fife also. He has been strong this season, and he’s going to add to those five touchdowns passed here. Hunter Watson is going to have some major issues, and that will include the turnovers. You aren’t going to need the points here with the underdogs, take them straight up. Back New Mexico State to get the job done on the money line.