New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky Prediction Football Picks Today 10/1/26

In this article we will formulate a New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky prediction for this College Football game on Thursday, October 1st at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup. 

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

The New Mexico State Aggies are 1-3 (0-0) this season after they lost to New Mexico by a score of 42-18 last week. New Mexico State trailed 14-3 at halftime and they allowed 28 points in the second half for the lopsided loss. The Aggies were out gained by a total of 427-400, went 6-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. Adam Damante threw for 157 yards and one touchdown, while Josiah Thomas caught five passes for 90 yards. James Jones rushed 14 times for 112 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, New Mexico State lost to Hawaii by a score of 29-19, but did beat Mercyhurst by a score of 51-14 before that. The Aggies have scored 26.3 points per game with 278.5 passing yards and 136.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 29.8 points against per game this season. Trey Hedden and Adam Damante are battling for the starting QB job, so we will probably see both quarterbacks in this one. 

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 1-3 (0-0) this year after they defeated Mercyhurst by a score of 52-7 last week. Western Kentucky led 31-0 at halftime and scored 21 more points in the second half for the blowout win. The Hilltoppers out gained their opponent by a total of 596-264, went 6-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Rodney Tisdale Jr threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns, while Nigel Johnson caught one pass for 72 yards and one score. Brock Glenn rushed five times for 50 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Prior to that game, Western Kentucky lost to Indiana by a score of 38-0 and Georgia by a score of 70-20. The Hilltoppers have scored 21.5 points per game with 212.8 passing yards and 130.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 41.0 points against per game this season. Rodney Tisdale Jr has thrown for 543 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, while Ajay Allen has rushed 50 times for 185 yards and two scores this year. 

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• The home team has won each of Western Kentucky’s last four games.
• Western Kentucky has lost each of its last three road games.
• New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a favorite.
• The favorite has won the first quarter in seven of New Mexico State’s last eight games.
• The favorite has won the first half in each of Western Kentucky’s last nine games.

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win

• Western Kentucky has won each of its last three October games as an underdog.
• New Mexico State has lost five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• Western Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a road underdog.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite.
• Western Kentucky has won the first quarter in seven of its last eight Thursday games against conference opponents.
• Western Kentucky has won the first half in eight of its last nine Thursday games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Western Kentucky’s last five games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of New Mexico State’s last five October games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Nick Session ranks 1st in the Conference USA for interceptions (2) this season.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Brock Glenn ranks T1st in the Conference USA for rushing touchdowns (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks T130th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (83.3).
• New Mexico State ranks T126th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-5.0).
• Western Kentucky has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Western Kentucky has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).

New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup with a 1-3 record and neither have a FBS win so far this year. Western Kentucky has played a very tough schedule to start the season, but did battle Indiana decently well two weeks ago. New Mexico State allowed 42 points to New Mexico last week and they have scored 19 or fewer in three of their four games. I think Western Kentucky is the much better team here and I like them to win behind a strong offensive performance.