The Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet Saturday in college football action from Kenan Memorial Stadium. Duke is 6-3 overall this year and coming off a wild win over Wake Forest last Thursday. As for North Carolina, they’re fresh off a matchup versus Campbell over the weekend. The 7-2 Tar Heels rolled to a blowout win in that one. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.

Duke Blue Devils 

The Blue Devils’ three losses this year have all come to ranked teams (Notre Dame, Florida State and Louisville) but otherwise they’re playing well overall. Duke carries a 25.7 points-per-game average with 29 total scores. Just seven of those TDs (and five interceptions) have come through the air, versus 20 rush scores with a 5.2 yards-per-carry average. 

Last Thursday versus Wake Forest, the Blue Devils scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and notched a late key field goal in a 24-21 comeback win. QB Grayson Loftis put up 86 yards with a TD and a pick, while Jordan Waters led the rush with 76 yards and a score. Jordan Moore was tops in receiving with 43 yards and a TD on three catches. 

Duke Blue Devils Team Facts

• The favorite has won each of Duke’s last eight games.
• Duke has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• Duke has lost the first half in nine of its last 12 road games against conference opponents.
• Thirteen of Duke’s last 14 games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

North Carolina Tar Heels 

Over on the Tar Heels’ side, they won their first six games this year before falling to Virginia 31-27 and Georgia Tech 46-42 in consecutive outings. North Carolina averaged a nice 36.6 points per game during that time with 319.9 passing yards per game on average and 16 pass scores (with five picks). The Tar Heels managed 19 rush scores in that stretch as well. 

In their weekend matchup versus Campbell, the Tar Heels started a bit slow with a 7-7 tie in the first quarter. UNC quickly got their groove back though, and ended up winning 59-7. QB Drake Maye finished with 244 yards and four TDs, while Omarion Hampton led the rush on 144 yards and two scores. Bryson Nesbit also caught six balls for 78 yards to lead the receivers. 

North Carolina Tar Heels Team Facts

• North Carolina has won nine of its last 10 matches at Kenan Memorial Stadium when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games.
• North Carolina has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has won the first quarter in 13 of its last 17 games against conference opponents at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
• Five of North Carolina’s last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina rank T12th among FBS teams for points per game this season (39.1).
• Duke rank T7th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (15.7).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK 

I’ll probably stick with North Carolina. The Tar Heels made short work of an overmatched Campbell team on Saturday, storming to 594 total yards (318 passing), 9.7 yards per play and 26 first downs. North Carolina has now been at 40 points or above in five of the last six games. 

As for Duke, they managed to steal one against a decent Wake Forest team in their last outing. The Blue Devils managed just 267 yards (86 passing) in that one with a couple of turnovers and a sketchy 5-of-14 success rate on third downs. Duke hasn’t surpassed 24 points in any of the last five games (going 2-3), and I don’t think they’ll reach that threshold in this one either.