North Carolina vs Duke Prediction Football Picks Today 11/22/25

In this article we will formulate a North Carolina vs Duke prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, November 22nd at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 13 matchup. 

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels are 4-6 (2-4) this season after they lost to Wake Forest by a score of 28-12 in their last game. North Carolina trailed 14-6 at halftime and they allowed 14 points in the second half in the loss. The Tar Heels were out gained by a total of 414-257, went 4-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Gio Lopez went 21-36 for 201 yards, while Demon June rushed nine times for 32 yards. Jake Johnson led the receivers with five catches for 54 yards in the loss. The UNC defense recorded two sacks and two tackles for loss in the game.

Prior to that game, North Carolina defeated Stanford by a score of 20-15 and Syracuse by a score of 27-10. The Tar Heels have won two of their last three games and they are currently tied for 11th in the ACC standings. North Carolina has scored 18.7 points per game with 180.3 passing yards and 109.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.0 points against per game this season. Gio Lopez has thrown for 1,425 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Demon June has rushed for 452 yards and two scores on 76 carries this season. 

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 5-5 (4-2) this year after they lost to Virginia by a score of 34-17 last week. Duke trailed 17-3 at halftime and they allowed the first 14 points in the second half to seal the loss. The Blue Devils were out gained by a total of 540-255, went 4-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Darian Mensah went 18-35 for 213 yards and one touchdown, while Nate Sheppard rushed 12 times for 43 yards. Landen King led the receivers with two catches for 48 yards in the loss. The Duke defense recorded zero sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Duke lost to UConn by a score of 37-34, but did beat Clemson by a score of 46-45 before that. The Blue Devils have lost three of their last four games and they are currently tied for fifth in the ACC standings. Duke has scored 33.4 points per game with 302.9 passing yards and 129.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 29.6 points against per game this season. Darian Mensah has thrown for 3,007 yards, 25 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Cooper Barkate has 53 receptions for 869 yards and six scores this year. 

Why the Duke Blue Devils will win

• Duke has won each of its last six games against teams from North Carolina.
• North Carolina has lost each of its last eight games as an underdog in North Carolina.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Kenan Stadium.
• Duke has covered the spread in each of its last five road games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Duke’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams at Kenan Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of North Carolina’s last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina ranks T4th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (78.6).
• North Carolina ranks 131st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (289.4).
• Duke ranks 130th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (273.3).
• Duke ranks 130th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (92.9).

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction 

Duke comes into this matchup after losing three of their last four games and they have allowed at least 34 points in three straight. The Blue Devils have had a decent offensive attack this season, but that defense is really letting them down. North Carolina has won two of their last three games, but their offense is very low scoring. The Tar Heels play pretty strong defense, which keeps them in games, but it’s tough to win when they struggle to get to 20. These two teams play two very different styles of football, but I am going to side with Duke, who is very explosive on offense. 

David Racey is 128-108 (54%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!