Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1)
October 3, 2026 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: North Carolina Tar Heels +21.5 / Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21.5; Over/Under: 46.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet in week 5 college football action from Kenan Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recap
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this game looking to add on to their 49-10 win over Purdue last time out to sit at 4-0 this season. After this game, Notre Dame will head home for a game against Stanford.
Irish Looking To Stay Undefeated
CJ Carr has thrown for 963 yards, 9 touchdowns and 1 interception on 70.5% passing while Aneyas Williams leads Notre Dame in rushing with 224 yards and 4 touchdowns so far this season. Nolan James Jr. sits behind Williams on the ground with 197 yards and 3 TDs. Micah Gilbert leads the Fighting Irish in receiving with 334 yards and 15 catches along with 2 TDs, while Jordan Faison trails with 239 yards and 17 catches. On defense, Drayk Bowen has a team-high 22 tackles while Notre Dame’s defense as a whole has combined for 13 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels Recap
The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game looking to rebound from a 28-20 loss at the hands of Clemson last time out to sit at 2-1 on the year. After this game, North Carolina will head on the road for a game against Pitt.
Tar Heels Looking To Rebound From First L
Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown for 611 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception on 56.4% passing while Benjamin Hall leads North Carolina in rushing with 215 yards and 0 touchdowns so far this season. Demon June sits behind Hall on the ground with 115 yards and 4 TDs. Jelani Thurman leads the Tar Heels in receiving with 183 yards and 11 catches along with 1 TD, while Jordan Shipp trails with 164 yards and 13 catches. On defense, Derek McDonald has a team-high 24 tackles while North Carolina’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends: Week 5
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- North Carolina has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams at Kenan Stadium.
- Notre Dame has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
- North Carolina has won the first quarter in each of its last three October games as an underdog against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- North Carolina has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will win
- Notre Dame has won each of its last 19 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last 10 games as an underdog in North Carolina.
- Notre Dame has covered the spread in each of its last seven games against teams from North Carolina.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an underdog in North Carolina.
- Notre Dame has won the first half in each of its last 15 October games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- Notre Dame has won the first quarter in each of its last 10 games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Carolina’s last five games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Notre Dame’s last five games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Xavier Lewis ranks 4th amongst FBS players for sacks (6.0) this season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, CJ Carr ranks T9th in the league for TD:INT ratio (9.00) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- North Carolina ranks 137th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (1.0).
- North Carolina ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (1.0).
- Notre Dame ranks 1st among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (199.3).
- Notre Dame has won the first quarter in each of its last eight games – longest active streak in the FBS.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction
I’m leaning towards Notre Dame here. I’m still not sold on North Carolina and while the Tar Heels got shafted in their loss to Clemson, it doesn’t excuse the 17-3 lead that they blew. Notre Dame woke up offensively against Purdue and I look for the Irish to run over the Tar Heels in this one. Give me Notre Dame.
