North Texas vs Texas State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/19/26

In this article, we will formulate a North Texas vs Texas State Prediction for this College Football Week 3 matchup on Saturday, September 19^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Texas State Bobcats Preview

Texas State has a 0-2 record and are coming off a 26-31 home loss against UTSA. They will face Incarnate Word and San Diego State next. Offensively, Texas State averages 16.5 points per game, ranking 127th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 45 points per game, which is 136th. Texas State averages 415 total yards per game (190 passing and 225 rushing), while allowing 457 total yards per game (148 rushing and 309 passing).

Brad Jackson leads Texas State with 342 passing yards with 60.4% completed passes and one touchdown. Torrance Burgess Jr. leads the team in rushing yards with 183, while Kylen Evans has a team-high 6 receptions for 102 receiving yards. Defensively, Jayden Lawton has a team-high 18 total tackles (8 of them solo), while Tymere Jackson leads the team with one sack.

North Texas Mean Green Preview

North Texas has a 1-1 record and are coming off a 44-6 home win against UNLV. They will face Houston Christian and Tulsa next. Offensively, North Texas averages 30 points per game, ranking 77th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 29 points per game, which is 115th. North Texas averages 405.5 total yards per game (238 passing and 167.5 rushing), while allowing 333 total yards per game (116 rushing and 217 passing).

Tayven Jackson leads North Texas with 425 passing yards with 68.5% completed passes and 2 touchdowns. Jahiem White leads the team in rushing yards with 185, while Corri Milliner has a team-high 7 receptions for 131 receiving yards. Defensively, CJ Coombes has a team-high 17 total tackles (6 of them solo), while David Onuoha leads the team with 1.5 sacks.

North Texas Mean Green @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• North Texas has lost each of its last eight games as an underdog against teams from Texas.
• Texas State has won five of its last six games against opponents from the American Conference.
• Texas State has covered the spread in six of its last eight games against opponents from the American Conference.
• North Texas has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog against teams from Texas.
• Texas State has won the first half in each of its last nine games as a favorite against teams from Texas.

Why the North Texas Mean Green will win

• North Texas has won each of its last 13 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas State has lost three of its last four September games as a favorite.
• North Texas has covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in September.
• North Texas has won the first quarter in three of its last four September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• North Texas has won the first half in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of North Texas’ last eight road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Texas State’s last five games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Brad Jackson ranks 12th amongst qualified players for sack percentage (1.9%) this season.

North Texas Mean Green Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Dominic De Freitas ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for made field goals (6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas State ranks 138th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (15.5).
• Texas State ranks 138th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (27.5).
• North Texas ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• North Texas ranks 14th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (34:49).

North Texas vs Texas State Prediction

In this North Texas vs Texas State Prediction, Texas State is coming as -3.5 home favorites. Both teams are coming off opposite outcomes in their previous games and Texas State has been winless this season, having failed to cover the spread in both of its games and losing by an average of 28.5 points. They also have the third-worst defense in the entire country, so it’s hard to back them up, even as slight home favorites. North Texas is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season and I will grab the +3.5 points with them today.