Baylor Bears (2-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-2)
September 27, 2025 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Oklahoma State Cowboys +20.5 Over/Under:
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The Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday in college football action from Boone Pickens Stadium. Here’s an Oklahoma State vs Baylor prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Oklahoma State vs Baylor pick.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Bears have four games in the can so far this year. The opener was against Auburn, a tricky matchup that turned into a 38-24 defeat at home on August 29. Game two was Baylor’s first win, but it was a tricky one. The Bears needed 21 second-quarter points and two overtime periods to dispatch SMU for their first September game. Matched up against Samford in their third outing things got easier. The Bears posted 35 points in the first half alone, rolling to a 42-7 victory at home. Baylor amassed 223 rushing yards in that one and held the Bulldogs to just 195 total on the other side in a very dominant effort.
In their latest outing versus Arizona State last weekend, the Bears kept pace the whole way but a 3-0 deficit in the third quarter ended up being the difference in a tough loss 27-24. QB Sawyer Robertson was 25-of-39 for 250 yards, three scores and an interception. Tops in the rushing game was Bryson Washington with 17 carries for 111 yards. Michael Trigg caught two of the TDs among his five grabs for 71 yards while Josh Cameron had six catches for 65 yards.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview
Over on the Oklahoma State side, they’ve got three games completed so far, with some very mixed results in that trio. The Cowboys took on Tennessee-Martin in their opener this year, scoring 14 points in the first quarter along the way to a 27-7 win. Oklahoma State managed 359 total yards in that one (232 coming from the pass) and held the Skyhawks to only 225 total on the other side. In game two versus a great Oregon team, it was a different story. Oklahoma State gave up a whopping 69 points across the first three quarters during a demoralizing 69-3 defeat. The Cowboys posted just 211 total yards in the loss while giving up 631 to the Ducks.
Oklahoma State took on a more manageable opponent last Friday in Tulsa, but the end result was pretty disappointing. The Cowboys posted a first-quarter field goal and didn’t score again until the fourth during an eventual 19-12 loss. QB Zane Flores finished with 214 yards on 25-of-40 passing, while also notching a rush touchdown. Tops in the ground game was Rodney Fields with 113 yards on 17 attempts, and Christian Fitzpatrick led the receivers with his four catches for 49 yards in the loss.
Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Trends: Week 5
Oklahoma State Cowboys Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Zane Flores has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (79).
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Sawyer Robertson ranks 1st amongst FBS players for passing yards (1320) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Oklahoma State ranks 136th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (2.0).
- Oklahoma State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Two of Baylor’s four games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
- Baylor ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (338.5).
Oklahoma State vs Baylor Prediction
I’ll probably lean toward Baylor here. The Bears need to shake off that tough loss versus Arizona State last weekend, though. Baylor’s offense coughed up three turnovers (two fumbles) in the defeat while going just 5-of-12 on third-down tries. Meanwhile the defense couldn’t generate any takeaways alongside 400 yards (221 passing) and 26 first downs allowed. There were simply too many mistakes out there (including the seven penalties for 86 yards). The Bears have given up at least 27 points in three of their four games so far, and 38 or more in two of those.
As for Oklahoma State, they’re coming off a pretty uninspiring loss versus Tulsa last Friday. The Cowboys managed 381 total yards in that one (196 passing) while allowing 424 yards on the other side. Sure, there was some late life in the offense but it was too little too late. That makes just 15 points combined over the last two games for the Cowboys—granted, one of those came against a stellar Oregon team, but the point stands. I don’t see Oklahoma State keeping a cover pace in this one.
