New Mexico Lobos (2-0) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (1-1)
September 19, 2026 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Oklahoma Sooners -21.5 / New Mexico Lobos +21.5; Over/Under: 45.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The New Mexico Lobos and the Oklahoma Sooners meet in week 3 college football action from Memorial Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New Mexico Lobos vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction.
New Mexico Lobos Recap
The New Mexico Lobos come into this game looking to add on to their 70-7 win over Mercyhurst last time out to improve to 2-0 on the year. After this game, New Mexico will head on the road for a game against New Mexico State.
Lobos Looking For First Win Over Real Competition
Luke Moga has thrown for 198 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 65.4% passing while Scottre Humphrey leads the Lobos in rushing with 174 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season. Zero more Lobos have at least 100 rushing yards as well this season including Kiefer Sibley who has 93 yards and a TD while Cade Keith leads New Mexico in receiving with 91 receiving yards and 5 catches to lead New Mexico along with 1 touchdown as well this season. On defense, Mercury Swaim has a team-high 10 total tackles in addition to 0 sacks while New Mexico’s defense as a whole has combined for 8 sacks and 5 interceptions so far this season.
Oklahoma Sooners Recap
The Oklahoma Sooners come into this game looking to shake off a 17-10 loss at the hands of Georgia last time out to fall to 1-1 on the year. After this game, Oklahoma will have a marquee matchup on the road against Georgia.
Sooners Fall Flat At Big House
John Mateer has thrown for 414 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 56.0% passing while Lloyd Avant leads the Sooners in rushing with 114 rushing yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Zero more Sooners have at least 100 rushing yards as well this season including John Mateer who has 52 yards and 0 TDs while Rocky Beers leads Oklahoma in receiving with 137 receiving yards and 8 catches to lead Oklahoma along with 1 touchdown as well this season. On defense, Owen Heinecke has a team-high 17 total tackles in addition to 0 sacks while Oklahoma’s defense as a whole has combined for 6 sacks and 0 interceptions so far this season.
New Mexico Lobos @ Oklahoma Sooners Betting Trends: Week 3
Why the Oklahoma Sooners will win
- Oklahoma has won each of its last 23 games against non-conference opponents at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
- New Mexico has lost each of its last 11 road openers.
- Oklahoma has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a home favorite.
- New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five September games against AP-ranked teams.
- Oklahoma has won the first half in each of its last 23 games against non-conference opponents at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
- Oklahoma has won the first quarter in each of its last 13 home games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won each of its last six games in September.
- The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has lost three of its last four games.
- New Mexico has covered the spread in each of its last four games in September.
- Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in each of its last three games as an underdog.
- New Mexico has won the first half in five of its last six games in September.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Oklahoma’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of New Mexico’s last four games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Oklahoma Sooners Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, Lloyd Avant ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, Brett Karhu ranks T1st in the Mountain West Conference for sacks (2.5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Oklahoma ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Oklahoma ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- New Mexico ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- New Mexico ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
New Mexico Lobos vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction
I’m on New Mexico and the points in this one. I get the allure of backing Oklahoma at home off of the loss against an inferior New Mexico team, but this Sooners team looks broken overall especially at the quarterback position, as John Mateer just looks uncomfortable in spots. Also I have to think that Oklahoma also has one eye at least on Georgia next week and Jason Eck has been fantastic as an underdog, both prior to coming to New Mexico and with the Lobos as well. This will be a stiff test, but I think New Mexico covers here.
