Duke Blue Devils (9-3) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
January 2, 2025 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Ole Miss Rebels -17.5 / Duke Blue Devils +17.5; Over/Under: +54.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Duke Blue Devils and the Ole Miss Rebels meet Thursday in Gator Bowl college football action from EverBank Stadium. Here’s an Ole Miss vs Duke prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Ole Miss vs Duke pick.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
The Blue Devils opened up on a nice run this year with five straight wins. Duke would then fall to Georgia Tech, SMU and Miami over the next four games before three more victories over NC State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest to finish things off.
Matched up against Wake Forest back on November 30, the Blue Devils came out of the third quarter with a 17-10 deficit. Duke stormed back with 13 unanswered points in a 23-17 win, though. QB Maalik Murphy had 235 yards with one TD and one pick, while Jordan Moore caught five balls for 98 yards and the score.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview
Over on the Ole Miss side, they won their first four outings before falling to Kentucky and LSU in a three-game span. The Rebels are 4-1 since then with wins over Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State alongside a lone loss to Florida.
In their November 29 matchup with Mississippi State, the Rebels were ahead by just three points going into the second half. Ole Miss cruised on a 9-0 run from there and won 26-14, though. Jaxson Dart threw for 143 yards and a TD. Ulysses Bentley added 20 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown of his own.
Why the Ole Miss Rebels will win
- Ole Miss has won each of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
- Duke has lost 14 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked teams.
- Ole Miss has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
- Ole Miss has won the first quarter in each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
- Ole Miss has won the first half in each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- The underdog has won each of Ole Miss’ last four Bowl games.
- Duke has covered the spread in each of its last seven Bowl games.
- Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite.
- Duke has won the first half in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.
- Duke has won the first quarter in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Ten of Ole Miss’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Duke’s last five games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ole Miss ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.6).
- Ole Miss ranks 1st among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (22.5).
- Duke ranks 130th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (28.9).
- Duke ranks 128th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (26:50).
Ole Miss vs Duke Prediction
I’ll stay with Ole Miss, but you could argue this one either way. It seems a fairly generous line for Duke. In any case, the Rebels started pretty slowly versus a struggling Mississippi State team in their last game but eventually pulled off the two-score win on 21 first downs and 397 total yards (254 rushing). The Rebels have scored 26 or more points in five of their last six games—a 4-2 stretch—and they’ve held opponents to 14 points or fewer in three of their last five.
As for Duke, they needed a big fourth quarter to power past Wake Forest in their last game despite holding the Deacons to a tepid 318 total yards. The Devils had a couple of turnovers in that one and went only 5-of-13 on third-down tries, so they could use a cleaner effort here. That said, Duke has put up 23 or more points in six straight games, going 4-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams in SMU and Miami. The Blue Devils have just two non-overtime losses this year and gave up more than 24 points in just one of that pair (53 to Miami). Ole Miss’ offense has their work cut out for them, but I like the Rebels to pull it off.
