PAC-12: Arizona vs USC 10/29/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Arizona Wildcats and USC Trojans clash Saturday in a week 9 Pac-12 college football game from Arizona Stadium.

The USC Trojans are coming off of their bye week, but the last time we saw them, they suffered their first loss of the season in a 43-42 loss to Utah, sitting at 6-1 on the year. Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,971 yards, 19 touchdowns and an interception on 63.9% passing while Travis Dye has a team-high 647 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Jordan Addison has a team-high 39 catches for 585 receiving yards to lead USC’s receiving group along with 7 touchdowns while Mario Williams has 493 receiving yards and 4 scores. On defense, Eric Gentry has a team-high 52 total tackles including 37 solo tackles while Tuli Tuipulotu has a team-high 7 sacks. Nick Figueroa has 3.5 sacks and Solomon Byrd also has 3 sacks. As a unit, USC has 12 interceptions and 24 sacks this season.

The Arizona Wildcats will also be coming off of their bye week, sitting at 3-4 after a 49-39 loss to Washington in their last game. Jayden de Laura has thrown for 2,274 yards, 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 63.3% passing while Michael Wiley has a team-high 297 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. DJ Williams and Jonah Coleman each have 250+ rushing yards while Jacob Cowing leads Arizona’s receivers with 53 catches for 737 yards and 7 touchdowns. Dorian singer has 41 grabs for 605 receiving yards while Tetairoa McMillan has 470 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns this season. On defense, Jerry Roberts has a team-high 49 total tackles while Hunter Echols has a team-high 3.5 sacks.

USC is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games while the over is 7-1 in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record. Arizona is 5-2 in their last 7 home games and 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win while the over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games following a loss.

I get the case to be made either way here, but I’m looking at the under here. Bottom line is I just think the total is too high. Sure, Arizona’s issue against the Pac-12 for the most part has been defense, but even when they keep pace, this is still an Arizona team that likely finishes in the low- to mid-20s. USC’s had an issue with defense at times themselves, but I just don’t see the Trojans giving Arizona many opportunities and for Arizona’s offense to sputter kind of how it did against Mississippi State and Oregon. I think this one could be a 45-24 or 45-27 kind of game, but I still see it finishing under this massive total.