Sacramento State vs Massachusetts Prediction Football Picks Today 9/26/26

The UMass Minutemen and the Sacramento State Hornets meet in week 4 college football action from Hornet Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UMass Minutemen vs. Sacramento State Hornets Prediction.

UMass Minutemen Recap

The UMass Minutemen come into this game looking to add on to their 36-14 win over Stonehill last time out to sit at 3-0 this season. After this game, UMass will head home for a game against Eastern Michigan.

Minutemen Looking To Stay Unbeaten

William Watson III has thrown for 509 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception on 75.4% passing while Elijah Faulkner leads UMass in rushing with 195 rushing yards and 0 touchdowns so far this season. Curtis Kimmons IV sits behind Faulkner on the ground with 128 yards and 2 TDs, while Watson III has also added 82 rushing yards and 2 scores. T.Y. Harding leads the Minutemen in receiving with 177 yards on 10 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Joseph Griffin Jr. trails with 134 yards on 8 catches. On defense, Timmy Hinspeter has a team-high 24 total tackles, Jahmad Harmon leads the unit with 3 interceptions, and William DePaepe leads the team with 2 sacks. Massachusetts’ defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 5 interceptions so far this season.

Sacramento State Hornets Recap

The Sacramento State Hornets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 31-10 loss at the hands of North Dakota State last time out to sit at 1-3 this season. After this game, Sacramento State will head on the road for a game against Bowling Green.

Hornets Drop Back-To-Back Games

Jackson Sharman has thrown for 638 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 58.8% passing while Isaiah Finkley leads Sacramento State in rushing with 150 rushing yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Daniel Swinney sits behind Finkley on the ground with 104 yards and 1 TD. Matt Cullen leads the Hornets in receiving with 227 yards on 22 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Ontaria Smith Jr. trails with 200 yards on 18 catches. On defense, Boogie Silvera has a team-high 22 total tackles, while Fata Puloka leads the team with 1.5 sacks. Sacramento State’s defense as a whole has combined for 4.5 sacks and 0 interceptions so far this season.

Massachusetts Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Sacramento State Hornets will win

• Massachusetts has lost each of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Sacramento State’s last four games.
• Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games as a favorite.
• Massachusetts has lost the first half in 23 of its last 25 road games in September.

Why the Massachusetts Minutemen will win

• The favorite has won 24 of Massachusetts’ last 26 games.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of Massachusetts’ last six games.
• The favorite has won the first half in seven of Massachusetts’ last eight games.
• Massachusetts has won the first quarter in each of its last five games as a favorite.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Massachusetts’ last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Sacramento State Hornets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Jackson Sharman ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (1.0%) this season.

Massachusetts Minutemen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Jahmad Harmon ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Sacramento State ranks T133rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (15.0).
• Sacramento State ranks T131st among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-7.5).
• Massachusetts ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Massachusetts ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).

UMass Minutemen vs. Sacramento State Hornets Prediction

I’m on UMass here. The line is funky, but I think that UMass is still the better team here that’s playing with some confidence in this one. Sacramento State got the cover against North Dakota State last week, but a win over Mississippi Valley State means nothing to begin wtih and the Hornets have been drilled in all of their other games this season. UMass hasn’t played anyone with a pulse the last couple of weeks, but I don’t think Sac State keeps this one within a TD. Give me the Minutemen.