Sam Houston State vs Texas State Prediction 9-28-24 College Football Picks

The Texas State Bobcats and the Sam Houston State Bearkats meet in week 5 college football action from NRG Stadium on Saturday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Sam Houston State vs Texas State Prediction.

Texas State Recap

The Texas State Bobcats come into this one fresh off of their bye week looking to rebound from their 31-28 loss to Arizona State last time out, sitting at 2-1 on the year. After this game, Texas State will stay on the road for a matchup with Troy.

Bobcats Trying To Get Back On Track

Jordan McCloud has thrown for 815 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 67.3% passing while Ismail Mahdi has rushed for a team-high 250 yards and Lincoln Pare has 155 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Joey Hobert leads Texas State’s receiving group with 18 grabs for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns while Chris Dawn Jr. and Jaden Williams each have 150+ receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs apiece this season. On defense, Jordan Polk has a team-high 23 total tackles while Ben Bell has a team-high 3.5 sacks. As a unit, Texas State has combined for 12 sacks and 2 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• Texas State has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• Texas State has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Sam Houston State Recap

The Sam Houston State Bearkats will come into this one looking to build on back-to-back wins after a 31-11 win over New Mexico State last time out. After this matchup, the Bearkats will head on the road for a date with UTEP.

Bearkats Starting To Heat Up

Hunter Watson has thrown for 540 yards, 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 58.3% passing while also rushing for a team-high 233 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jay Ducker has 209 rushing yards and DJ McKinney’s chipped in 155 rushing yards as well on the year. Qua’Vez Humphreys also has a team-high 234 receiving yards and 3 TDs while Ife Adeyi has a team-high 14 grabs for 147 yards and Simeon Evans has 142 receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Caleb Weaver has a team-high 26 total tackles including 18 solo tackles and a pair of interceptions while Briceon Hayes and Chris Murray each have a pair of sacks. As a unit, Sam Houston’s defense has combined for 7 sacks and 5 interceptions as well on the year.

Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win

• Texas State has lost 10 of its last 12 games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Sam Houston State has won four of its last five games.
• Sam Houston State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.

Sam Houston State vs Texas State Prediction

I’m on Sam Houston and the points here. I think that Texas State could get the win here, but to see this line over a touchdown I think is a bit much, the Bearkats have been playing well as of late and have been solid across the board in recent weeks to where I think they can hold their own in this game. All in all, I think this one’s going to be competitive, and I want the points in my back pocket.