San Diego State vs Fresno State Prediction 10/25/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a San Diego State vs Fresno State Prediction for this College Football Week 9 game on Saturday, October 25^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Fresno State Bulldogs Preview

Fresno State has a 5-2 record this season and is sitting 5th in the MWC. They are 3-4 ATS, 4-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and a 2-2 away record. Fresno State is coming off a 21-49 road loss against Colorado State and will face Boise State, Wyoming and next.

Offensively, Fresno State averages 29.3 points per game, ranking 66th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 23.7 points per game, which is 65th. Fresno State averages 382.9 total yards per game (218.3 passing and 164.6 rushing), while allowing 311.9 total yards per game (121.4 rushing and 190.4 passing).

E.J. Warner leads Fresno State with 1,486 passing yards with 68.8% completed passes and 10 touchdowns. Bryson Donelson leads the team in rushing yards with 405, while Josiah Freeman has a team-high 24 receptions for 300 receiving yards. Defensively, Jadon Pearson has a team-high 59 total tackles (31 of them solo), while Finn Claypool leads the team in sacks, with 3.5, and K’Vion Thunderbird has a team-high 2 interceptions.

San Diego State Aztecs Preview

San Diego State has a 5-1 record this season and is sitting 2nd in the MWC. They are 5-1 ATS, 3-3 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and a 2-1 away record. San Diego State Aztecs is coming off a 44-10 road win against Nevada and will face Wyoming, Hawaii and Boise State next.

Offensively, San Diego State averages 30.7 points per game, ranking 55th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 12.2 points per game, which is 5th. San Diego State averages 369.2 total yards per game (189.0 passing and 180.2 rushing), while allowing 259.7 total yards per game (95.7 rushing and 164.0 passing).

Jayden Denegal leads San Diego State with 1,097 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and 7 touchdowns. Lucky Sutton leads the team in rushing yards with 531, while Jordan Napier has a team-high 37 receptions for 553 receiving yards. Defensively, Owen Chambliss has a team-high 52 total tackles (29 of them solo), while August Salvati leads the team in sacks, with 3.5, and Chris Johnson has a team-high 3 interceptions.

San Diego State Aztecs @ Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 9

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won each of its last nine home games against teams from California.
• San Diego State has lost three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in six of its last seven October games as a home underdog.
• Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last six home games against conference opponents.

Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win

• San Diego State has won each of its last eight games as a road favorite.
• San Diego State has covered the spread in each of its last six road games in October.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games in October.
• San Diego State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of San Diego State’s last six games as a favorite against teams from California have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Fresno State’s last four games as an underdog against San Diego State have gone UNDER the total points line.

Fresno State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Rayshon Luke leads Fresno State for touchdowns (7) this season.

San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts

• Jayden Denegal has recorded a 120.0+ passer rating in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS.

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Fresno State ranks 126th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (70.0).
• San Diego State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• San Diego State ranks 5th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (12.2).

San Diego State vs Fresno State Prediction

In their previous meeting in 2023, San Diego State won 33-18 at home, but Fresno State is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Fresno State. Their last three meetings have gone over the total.

In this San Diego State vs Fresno State Prediction, San Diego State is coming as -3-point road favorites, with the total set at 47.5 points. Both teams have been excellent this season, with a 5-2 and 5-1 record, but Fresno State is perfect at home with a 3-0 record, while San Diego State is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4. The Aztecs ae better both offensively and defensively and are winning by an average of 18.5 points per game, having the 5^th-best defense in the country. Take San Diego State to win and cover on the road.