San Diego State vs North Texas Prediction Football Picks Today 12/27/25

The North Texas Mean Green and the San Diego State Aztecs meet in the New Mexico Bowl in college football action from University Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs prediction.

North Texas Mean Green Recap

The North Texas Mean Green come into this game on behalf of the AAC, sitting at 11-2 this season following a 34-21 loss to Tulane in the AAC title game. 

Mean Green Looking For First Bowl Game Win Since 2013

Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 4,129 yards, 31 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 70.2% passing while Caleb Hawkins has a team-high 1,236 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns while Makenzie McGill II has 389 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Wyatt Young leads North Texas with 63 catches for 1,209 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Cameron Dorner has 50 catches for 845 yards and 6 touchdowns. Miles Coleman has 536 receiving yards and 46 catches while Landon Sides has 400 receiving yards and Tre Williams has 5 touchdowns and 371 receiving yards. Two more Mean Green receivers have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Ethan Wesloski has a team-high104 total tackles including 56 solo tackles and an interception while Keviyan Huddleston also has a team-high 5 sacks and Ethan Day has 4.5 sacks. As a unit, North Texas’ defense has combined for 23 sacks and 13 interceptions so far this season.

Why the North Texas Mean Green will win

• North Texas has won each of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Diego State has lost four of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• North Texas has covered the spread in each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog.

San Diego State Aztecs Recap

The San Diego State Aztecs come into this game repping the Mountain West after finishing the year at 9-3 thanks to a 23-17 loss at the hands of the New Mexico Lobos to close out the regular season.

Aztecs In First Bowl Game In Three Years

Jayden Denegal has thrown for 1,807 yards, 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 58.8% passing while Lucky Sutton leads the Aztecs in rushing with 1,237 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Jordan Napier leads the Aztecs in receiving with 48 grabs for 629 yards and 2 TDs while Donovan Brown has 475 receiving yards and four more Aztecs have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Owen Chambliss has 105 total tackles to lead San Diego State along with 4 sacks while Trey White has a team-high 7 sacks and Ryan Henderson also has 7 sacks. Niles King has 6.5 sacks and Chris Johnson also has 4 interceptions as well this season. As a unit, San Diego State’s defense has combined for 32 sacks and 13 interceptions so far this season.

Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win

• North Texas has lost each of its last seven games at neutral venues.
• San Diego State has won eight of its last 10 games.
• North Texas has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games in December.
• San Diego State has covered the spread in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of San Diego State’s last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of North Texas’ last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

North Texas Mean Green vs. San Diego State Aztecs Prediction

I’m on San Diego State and the points here. I don’t know what North Texas is going to look like amidst all the chaos of this coaching change with Eric Morris off to Oklahoma State, and while San Diego State won’t have Jayden Denegal here, I think they still have enough going for them to get at least a cover here against a North Texas team that hasn’t won a bowl game in over a decade. Give me San Diego State and the points.