San José State vs Air Force Prediction Football Picks Today 11/14/26

San José State vs Air Force Prediction

In this San José State vs Air Force prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14^th, Air Force is coming as -12.5 home favorites. Air Force has been the better team this season and has been almost perfect at home. The Falcons have been in excellent form with a 6-1 record in their last 7 games and 5-1 against the spread, while on the other hand, the Spartans have lost two of their last three games and are 3-5 against the spread in their last 8. Air Force has been better both on the offensive and the defensive end, so I expect them to get the job done and cover the -10.5 spread.

Air Force Falcons Preview

Air Force has a 7-2 record and a 3-2 conference record, sitting on the 3rd place of the Mountain West, while having a 4-1 home record and a 3-1 away record. They are coming off a 24-21 road win against Army, following a 35-26 home win against UConn and a 14-28 road loss against Wyoming, and will face UTEP and New Mexico next.

Offensively, Air Force averages 28.7 points per game, while defensively, they allow 21.4 points per game. Air Force averages 393.9 total yards per game (61.9 passing and 332 rushing), while allowing 295.9 total yards per game (135 rushing and 160.9 passing). They average 71.8 plays per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 52.7 plays per game and 5.6 yards per play on defense. Air Force averages 22.9 first downs per game on offense and 15.3 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per rush attempt. Air Force has scored 33 touchdowns this season (5 passing and 27 rushing). They are converting 51.16% of their third downs and 76.92% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 4 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 6 passes.

Liam Szarka leads Air Force with 296 passing yards with 50% completed passes and 1 touchdown. Evan Medders leads the team in rushing yards with 549, while Simon Kibbee has a team-high 166 receiving yards and 10 receptions. Defensively, Blake Fletcher has a team-high 84 total tackles (37 of them solo), while Max Mustell leads the team with 3 sacks.

San José State Spartans Preview

San José State has a 5-5 record and a 3-3 conference record, sitting on the 6th place of the Mountain West, while having a 2-3 home record and a 3-2 away record. They are coming off a 30-19 home win against Northern Illinois, following a 16-21 home loss against New Mexico and a 13-28 road loss against Nevada, and will face UNLV and North Dakota State next.

Offensively, San José State averages 20.9 points per game, while defensively, they allow 22 points per game. San José State averages 345.1 total yards per game (228.2 passing and 116.9 rushing), while allowing 378.1 total yards per game (151.4 rushing and 226.7 passing). They average 64.1 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 71.1 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on defense. San José State averages 16.9 first downs per game on offense and 20.3 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 3.5 yards per rush attempt. San José State has scored 21 touchdowns this season (13 passing and 7 rushing). They are converting 30.43% of their third downs and 56.25% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 8 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 12 passes.

Luke Weaver leads San José State with 1,810 passing yards with 63.6% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Jabari Bates leads the team in rushing yards with 682, while Carson Clark has a team-high 689 receiving yards and 61 receptions. Defensively, Dylan Lee has a team-high 88 total tackles (48 of them solo), while Jayland McGlothen leads the team with 7 sacks.

San Jose State Spartans @ Air Force Falcons Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• Air Force has won six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Jose State has lost 12 of its last 15 road games in November.
• San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in six of Air Force’s last seven games at Falcon Stadium.
• San Jose State has lost the first half in four of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the San Jose State Spartans will win

• The underdog has won three of the last four games between San Jose State and Air Force.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents at Falcon Stadium.
• The road team has covered the spread in nine of San Jose State’s last 11 games.
• San Jose State has won the first half in three of its last four road games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of San Jose State’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Air Force’s last three November games at Falcon Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Air Force Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Simon Kibbee leads Air Force for receiving yards (166) this season.

San Jose State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Carson Clark leads the Mountain West Conference for targets (91) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Air Force ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (36:28).
• Air Force has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last 10 games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
• San Jose State ranks T134th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.3).
• San Jose State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (8.2).