Boston College Eagles (2-2) vs. SMU Mustangs (3-1)
October 3, 2026 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: SMU Mustangs -1800 / Boston College Eagles 1000; Over/Under: 55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a SMU vs Boston College prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 3rd at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 5 matchup.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The SMU Mustangs are 3-1 (1-1) this season after they defeated Missouri State by a score of 34-24 last week. SMU led 14-10 at halftime and they scored 20 points in the second half, but failed to cover in the win. The Mustangs out gained Missouri State by a total of 592-239, went 8-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Kevin Jennings threw for 464 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, while Yamir Knight caught 11 passes for 164 yards and one score. Kendrick Raphael rushed 23 times for 98 yards and one touchdown in the win.
Prior to that game, SMU lost to Louisville by a score of 41-31, but did beat UC Davis by a score of 56-10 before that. The Mustangs have scored 37.0 points per game with 392.5 passing yards and 158.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.8 points against per game this season. Kevin Jennings has thrown for 1,453 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
Boston College Eagles Betting Preview
The Boston College Eagles are 2-2 (0-1) this year after they lost to Virginia Tech by a score of 21-14 last week. Boston College trailed 3-0 at halftime, but they led 14-6 in the fourth quarter, before allowing the last 15 points for the loss. The Eagles were out gained by a total of 370-261, went 2-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Mason McKenzie threw for 111 yards, while Jaedn Skeete caught two passes for 37 yards. McKenzie also led the rushing attack with 26 carries for 138 yards and two scores in the win.
Prior to that game, Boston College defeated Maine by a score of 22-16 and Rutgers by a score of 28-21. The Eagles have scored 19.8 points per game with 189.8 passing yards and 162.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.0 points against per game this season. Mason McKenzie has thrown for 759 yards with three touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 363 yards and three scores this year.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won each of its last 14 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
- Boston College has lost each of its last 11 games as an underdog.
- SMU has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
- Boston College has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four road games in October.
- SMU has won the first half in each of its last 20 games as a favorite in Texas.
- SMU has won the first quarter in each of its last six October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Boston College Eagles will win
- Boston College has covered the spread in each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games as an AP-ranked team.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Boston College’s last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of SMU’s last five games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Kevin Jennings ranks 2nd amongst FBS players for passing yards (1453) this season.
Boston College Eagles Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, KP Price ranks T12th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- SMU ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.8).
- SMU ranks 1st among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (392.5).
- Boston College has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
- Boston College ranks 138th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (2.3).
SMU vs Boston College Prediction
Boston College comes into this game after a tough loss last week against Virginia Tech and their offense has struggled to score points. The Eagles lost by 19 points in their only road game so far, but they have allowed 21 or fewer in three straight. SMU is 3-1 through four games, but looked pretty bad against Missouri State last week. The Mustangs have not beaten a FBS team by 21 points so far this year and turnovers are an issue. Take Boston College and the points here.
