Florida State Seminoles (1-3) vs. SMU Mustangs (3-1)
September 28, 2024 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: SMU Mustangs -4.5 / Florida State Seminoles +4.5; Over/Under: +47.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Florida State Seminoles and the SMU Mustangs will meet Saturday in college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Here’s an SMU vs Florida State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best SMU vs Florida State pick.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
The Seminoles kicked off the 2024 season with a matchup versus Georgia Tech. FSU took a tough loss 24-21 in that one, and followed it up with another loss 28-13 to Boston College on September 2. Game three was another loss for the Seminoles 20-12 versus Memphis.
Matched up against California last weekend, the Seminoles posted a touchdown in the fourth quarter to cap off a 14-9 comeback victory. DJ Uiagalelei threw for 177 yards, one TD and one pick. Lawrance Toafili rushed 17 times for 80 yards and a TD.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
Over on the Mustangs’ side, they were able to power out a win in their opener, taking out Nevada 29-24 on August 24. SMU kept it going with a 59-7 blowout win versus an overwhelmed Houston Christian team, but would fall in a tough one to BYU the next week.
On Saturday versus TCU, the Mustangs put up double-digit points in each of the first three quarters on the way to a wild 66-42 victory. QB Kevin Jennings thew for 137 yards and two scores. Brashard Smith logged 18 carries for 127 yards and three rush scores.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won 21 of its last 22 September games as a favorite.
- Florida State has lost three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- SMU has covered the spread in five of its last six home games.
- Florida State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Florida State Seminoles will win
- The underdog has won three of Florida State’s last four games.
- The underdog has covered the spread in five of SMU’s last six games.
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Florida State’s last nine games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of SMU’s last eight September games as a home favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
SMU vs Florida State Prediction
I’ll try SMU in this one. Of the Mustangs’ 375 total yards in their win over TCU, 238 of them came on the ground. SMU averaged 6.1 yards per play and posted 23 first downs in the win. Defensively they gave up a ton of passing yards (415), but did notch five takeaways.
As for Florida State, they powered out a gritty win over Cal in their last game. The Seminoles gave up 410 total yards (303 passing) but did pretty well on third-downs defensively (5-of-15 allowed). The 10 Bears penalties didn’t hurt, either. Ultimately I like FSU to be competitive here but I don’t think they’ll cover.
