SMU vs Louisville Prediction Football Picks Today 11/22/25

The Louisville Cardinals and the SMU Mustangs meet in week 13 college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a SMU vs Louisville Prediction.

Louisville Cardinals Recap

The Louisville Cardinals come into this game looking to bounce back from a 20-19 loss at the hands of Clemson last time out to sit at 7-3 this season. After this game, Louisville will head home for a rivalry matchup against Kentucky.

Cardinals Drop Back-To-Back Games

Miller Moss leads Louisville in passing with 2,344 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 64.3% passing while Isaac Brown has a team-high 782 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns and Keyjuan Brown has 592 rushing yards with 6 TDs. Chris Bell leads Louisville’s receiving group with 67 grabs for 871 yards and 6 touchdowns while Caullin Lacy has 52 catches for 542 yards and 2 TDs. On defense, TJ Quinn has a team-high 72 total tackles while Antonio Watts has a team-high 3 INTs and Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey each have 5 sacks. As a unit, Louisville’s defense has combined for 20 sacks and 12 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last three games as an underdog.
• The underdog has covered the spread in five of Louisville’s last six games.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games as a favorite.

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to build on their 45-13 win over Boston College last time out to sit at 7-3 this season. After this game, SMU will head on the road for a game against Cal to close out the regular season. 

Mustangs Win 5 Of Last 6

Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,810 yards, 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on 64.8% passing while T.J. Harden leads SMU in rushing with 613 yards and 6 touchdowns. Chris Johnson Jr. also has 316 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the ground while Jordan Hudson has a team-high 42 receptions for 595 yards and 4 TDs. Romello Brinson has 582 receiving yards on 40 grabs with 3 TDs and Yamir Knight’s added 460 receiving yards with 4 TDs. Three more Mustangs have 200+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Isaiah Nwokobia leads the Mustangs with 77 total tackles including 40 solo tackles while Isaiah Smith has a team-high 8 sacks and Ahmaad Moses has a team-high 5 interceptions. Terry Webb and Jeffrey M’Ba each have 5.5 sacks and Cameron Robertson has 5 sacks this season. As a unit, SMU’s defense has combined for 33 sacks and 16 interceptions so far this season.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 13 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• Louisville has lost seven of its last eight November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• SMU has covered the spread in each of its last four games in November.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last four games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Louisville’s last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

SMU vs Louisville Prediction

I’m on SMU here. I just think that home field is going to be the difference here between two teams with little to play for except pride at this point. Both have clinched a bowl game and neither is going to the ACC title game. I look for SMU to keep up their home momentum and to win this one by a TD so give me SMU here.